Did the Fed admit a mistake?

by | Sep 20, 2024

Wednesday’s half-point Fed rate cut has sparked plenty of questions, but there’s one I haven’t been hearing:

Was it a mistake not to cut rates at the previous meeting?

When the Fed opted for a larger rate cut this time around, it begs the question — were they late to act? 

This latest move seems almost like an attempt to make up for lost time. By going twice as deep as expected, is the Fed acknowledging that they should have taken action earlier?

This line of thinking isn’t just speculation. The market’s reaction speaks volumes. Right after the announcement, we saw gold surge, only to quickly fall and then rebound. The same can be said for the S&P, which had its own back-and-forth swings. It’s as if traders were just shaking out weak positions, trying to adjust to what feels like a rushed decision.

The Fed’s choices carry weight, and they clearly felt pressure to move. But was this half-point cut really necessary, or was it more of a reaction to the pressure they faced from the markets and the broader economy?

In my opinion, they should have held firm — no rate cuts at all.

The inflation we’re facing hasn’t gone away, and lowering rates doesn’t change the reality of higher grocery and car prices.

It feels like the Fed is playing catch-up, and it remains to be seen whether this move will provide the long-term stability they’re aiming for.

As we move forward, the big question is whether the Fed will continue to trim rates, or if they’ll hold the line.

Either way, it’s clear that the decision to cut rates at this meeting may be an admission that they hesitated too long before making their move.

— Geof Smith

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