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California is on its knees.
After two decades of trying to push fossil fuels out, the state is now begging oil companies not to leave.
Over the weekend, lawmakers even passed a bill to increase drilling permits — 2,000 more per year, for the next 10 years.
Sounds like a big reversal, right?
But here’s the kicker: they didn’t sweeten the deal. No tax breaks, no emissions relief. The oil companies basically said, “Thanks, but screw you.”
What does that mean? If you think Californians are paying a lot at the pump now… just wait. When supply shrinks and demand doesn’t, prices climb. Simple as that.
Meanwhile, the rest of the market is still trying to recover from the Fed’s cut yesterday.
On Wednesday, I told you how the Magnificent 7 stocks got dumped right after Powell’s announcement, while gold hit new highs and bonds caught a bid. That was just 20 minutes into the reaction.
Today we’ve had time to breathe, and the tone is still choppy.
The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came in much stronger than expected.
Normally, strong data would be good news. But right now, it has traders asking the same question I brought up on Tuesday when retail sales surprised: does stronger data tie the Fed’s hands?
The Fed just cut yesterday — but with numbers like this, can they really keep cutting? Or will Powell have to pause sooner than he wants?
That’s the tension playing out:
- California shows how policy missteps come back to bite.
- Strong economic data keeps markets guessing about Fed cuts.
- And traders are still adjusting to Wednesday’s Fed move.
It’s been a week of big headlines — TikTok, retail sales, the Fed, and now California. Each one has moved markets in its own way.
Stay sharp,
— Geof
