As we kick off a new trading month, markets are giving us a mix of signals.
On a positive note, recent data shows that global manufacturing output has returned to growth. This resurgence suggests that, on a worldwide scale, production activities are gaining momentum.
The bad news is the U.S. might not be participating fully in that momentum.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a slight decline in its Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), slipping from 50.9 in January to 50.3 in February, indicating a marginal slowdown in growth.
On the flip side, S&P Global’s U.S. Manufacturing PMI tells a different story, rising from 51.2 in January to 52.7 in February and signaling an acceleration in manufacturing activity.
This divergence is surely sending mixed signals and suggests that while some areas of the U.S. manufacturing sector are experiencing growth, others may be facing challenges.
Meanwhile, metals are starting to shine again given recent geopolitical uncertainty, namely President Trump’s recent meeting with Ukranian President Zelenskyy and how it could signal a shift in the U.S’s support for the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
In response, we’re seeing an uptick in metals prices, with both gold and silver showing gains after weeks of mostly sideways-to-down action as investors seek safe-haven assets.
Keeping a Steady Hand in Uncertain Markets
A new month always brings fresh data and a reset in positioning.
Right now, with conflicting manufacturing signals, geopolitical tension heating up, and markets looking for direction, the best approach is to stay patient and let the market reveal its next move.
The coming week will set the tone for March, and the key will be watching how these trends develop — not just day by day, but in the bigger picture.
I’ll be watching it all closely and keeping you updated. For now, stay patient and let’s see what the market gives us.
Stay sharp,
—Geof Smith
P.S. This gold bounce could mean the start of another acceleration cycle! Click here to see how I’m playing it!
