The S&P 500 has been wobbling, and where it goes next could set the tone for the entire market.
Here’s what’s happening:
Yesterday, the S&P broke below the month’s open… and tested the year’s open.
Then it bounced — only to slide back below the month’s open today.
So what does that mean?
➡️ If the S&P breaks the year’s open again and holds below it, we could see a much bigger decline unfold.
➡️ But if buyers step in and defend that level again, the market could stay in this choppy, indecisive phase.
The Bond Markets: A Warning Sign
While stocks struggle, bonds are rallying, sending interest rates lower.
At first glance, that sounds good — lower rates usually help stocks.
But this time? The market isn’t cheering.
Instead, traders are spooked. When bond yields fall too fast, it’s often a sign that investors are bracing for a weaker economy.
In other words, bonds are flashing a warning signal, and the market is still trying to figure out whether to listen.
With major technical levels in play and economic uncertainty rising, this is a critical moment for the market.
I covered all this and more in yesterday’s Market Radar — including what I’m watching next. Click here to watch it now.
Stay sharp,
—Geof Smith
