Hey folks,
Just a quick note today with what’s on my mind.
Crude oil is trading higher this morning — not because of inventories or supply issues, but because of geopolitics.
The U.S. is reportedly preparing to evacuate embassy personnel from Iraq over fears of a possible Iranian attack. That alone has traders rattled.
Now, when we talk about “Middle East unrest”, this is the kind of thing we mean — and it always gets priced into oil.
Why? Because a huge chunk of the world’s oil supply moves through that region.
If there’s even a hint of conflict that might disrupt that flow — whether it’s a pipeline, a port, or shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz — oil markets jump.
And right now, that possibility is enough to push prices up.
It’s not about what has happened. It’s about what could happen.
So even though nothing’s physically changed yet, the risk is enough to move oil higher.
At the same time, gold is climbing too. That’s pretty typical when the market senses uncertainty.
Gold’s not just a commodity — it’s a psychological safe haven. When tensions rise and risk appetite shrinks, gold tends to catch a bid.
So with oil and gold both reacting this morning, we’re seeing a little fear premium get baked into the market.
Now I’m not saying this turns into a full-blown crisis. These headlines can fizzle fast. But the market is reacting — and when energy and metals start to move together, it’s worth paying attention.
It’s a reminder that in this market, news moves fast — and sometimes it’s the fear of disruption, not the disruption itself, that drives price.
Stay sharp,
—Geof
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