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I was listening to someone throw out a forecast the other day — saying the S&P 500 (SPX) could hit 7,800 in the next year or two. It sounds bold, like they’re really sticking their neck out with a big call.
But here’s the part most people miss when they hear predictions like that.
The 123-Point Reality
The S&P 500’s average daily range right now is 123 points. That’s the key number.
So when someone calls for 7,800 over the next year or two, just do the math. At the current average range, that’s roughly eight trading days of movement. Eight days.
In other words, the market could theoretically cover that distance in a very short window if momentum shows up. Given how the past several years have played out, that kind of move isn’t as far-fetched as it sounds.
That’s the disconnect. Markets can cover ground so quickly that long-term targets often fall well within normal volatility. What sounds like a distant forecast is sometimes just a function of everyday movement.
What This Means for You
This isn’t about whether 7,800 is right or wrong. It’s about context.
Before reacting to any forecast, ask a few simple questions: What’s the current daily range? How far is the target from here? And how many normal trading days would it take to get there?
A lot of predictions that sound impressive are just describing what could happen within ordinary market behavior. That doesn’t make them insightful. It makes them math.
Once you understand the daily range, you stop focusing on big round numbers and start focusing on what actually matters — the setup, the risk and whether there’s a real edge.
Don’t let big targets impress you. Know your volatility, understand your ranges and don’t give extra credit to forecasts that sit comfortably inside normal market movement.
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Geof Smith
Geof Smith TradingÂ
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P.S. A Massive Shift Is On The Cards In The Market… Are You Prepared?
I recently went live to reveal the No. 1 play traders need to know to capitalize on a massive market shift.
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but we can’t guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Since LIVE trading began on 9/18/25, there have been 21 trades, with 15 winners and six still open, continuing the undefeated streak. In LIVE trading, the average return has been 32.05%, and the average hold time has been 16 days.Â
