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The way this market is shaping up, I think the risk is to the upside — but I’m not ruling out a hard reversal either.
That’s why I’m positioning for both a potential global melt-up and a nasty correction. I’ve seen enough in the last few years to know that this thing can swing hard in either direction.
We’ve spent the better part of the past five years watching the U.S. dominate markets. That “American exceptionalism” narrative took hold post-COVID and didn’t let go.
But this year feels different.
Countries are starting to invest in themselves again. The Eurozone is spending, China’s spending, the U.S. is still spending — and we’re all still drunk on cheap money and fiscal policy.
This isn’t just about the U.S. anymore. If anything, we’ve inflicted enough self-harm to give the rest of the world room to catch up. That’s why I’m starting to think the next big move isn’t just domestic — it’s global.
The Upside Risk No One’s Talking About
I get that it sounds strange calling upside a risk — but that’s exactly what it is. Asset prices melt higher, everyone feels great, and then the whole thing eventually breaks.
We’ve seen this story before. Run too hot, fly too close to the sun, crash and burn.
That’s why I’m not sitting back pretending this can last forever. I’ve been adding hedges — real protection — that can pay off 20 to 1, 30 to 1, even 40 to 1 if we get hit. I don’t need a meltdown to happen, but if it does and I’m not prepared, that’s on me.
These hedges aren’t about being bearish. They’re about being realistic. Every 90 to 180 days, I refresh them, knowing that a 30% to 50% drawdown isn’t impossible.
I’ve got a bullish tilt overall, but I’m not going to play this melt-up without protection.
What Could Trigger the Break
Jobs are fine, tech is leading again and buyers are back. But there are still trade tensions brewing. The U.S. keeps threatening tariffs, then backing off.
Same with Europe and China. It’s all talk for now, but nobody’s inked a real deal. That kind of uncertainty keeps a lid on confidence, even when asset prices are flying.
Meanwhile, borrowing costs are climbing. A lot of companies that locked in dirt-cheap debt in 2020 are facing a very different refinancing landscape now.
That’s going to squeeze margins and weigh on growth, especially if rates keep grinding higher.
So yeah, I like being long. I like watching my portfolio hit new highs. But I’m not blind to the risks — and I’m definitely not going to let a melt-up lull me into complacency.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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P.S. The Pattern That Shows Up Before Explosive Moves
Fundamentals tell one story…
Price action tells the truth —but most traders read it too late. And that’s where the “PinchPoint” comes in.
It’s a simple pattern that shows pressure building before a breakout.
