There’s no other way to say it…
With the S&P 500 up about 14% the past month (through Friday), this might be the most hated rally I’ve ever traded. And I’ve been doing this a long time.
The market’s been melting up off the April lows, but it doesn’t feel like a victory. It feels forced.
Thin volume. No breadth. Just a handful of names — mostly the Mag 7 — doing all the heavy lifting while 65% of stocks remain under their 200-day moving average.
That’s not a healthy rally. That’s a reflexive unwind of overly bearish sentiment.
And make no mistake — the sentiment has been wildly bearish. We’ve now seen 10 straight weeks of extreme pessimism in the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, the most in the survey’s nearly 40-year history.
Everyone’s leaning short, and the market is squeezing the hell out of them.
Squeezing the Bears, Not Lifting the Market
This is the pain trade in full effect. It’s not that investors suddenly love stocks — it’s that they hate being wrong. The bears are closing shorts, going to cash, or even flipping long just to avoid getting steamrolled again.
I get it. It’s hard to watch this low-volume levitation and not feel the pressure to chase. But I’ve been around long enough to know when something doesn’t smell right.
I’ve locked in a ton of winners over the past few weeks. I’ve deleveraged and derisked, and now I’m sitting in 60% cash — and I’m not in a hurry to deploy it.
Why I’m Still Cautious
I’m not calling a top, and I’m not going short for the sake of it. But I am respecting the setup. We just had a 15% drawdown in April and bounced right back to the 200-day. That’s the level I said I’d start peeling off risk, and I’ve done exactly that.
The bigger concern is what happens next. The Fed is shifting toward cuts, which historically hasn’t been bullish. Yields are sticky. Tariffs and trade war uncertainty are still in play.
And earnings — while not a disaster — haven’t been impressive enough to justify all-time highs.
So yeah, maybe this rally keeps going. Maybe we break out and squeeze higher. But I’m not buying the hype — not here, not now. This rally isn’t built on strength.
It’s built on disbelief. And when rallies are this hated, the question isn’t whether we go higher — it’s what happens when we don’t.
I’m not betting on direction. I’m betting on income. And until something changes, that’s the only trade that makes sense.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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P.S. No Roadmap for 2025? It’s Not Your Fault!
I want to tell you about a helpful event happening at 1 p.m. ET today.
Because the market’s been throwing punches for two months straight.
March broke the trend. April broke nerves.
If you’re feeling disoriented, it’s not your fault. The market is disoriented too.
Which is why I’ll be watching options expert Nate Tucci walk through all of the projections he’s using to navigate what comes next.
And my friend and Roger Scott will be there. They’re calling it The Big Picture 2025.
Nate’s not the type to hold anything back, so you’ll see:
- Nate’s shocking prediction about when we’ll make all-time highs (and it’s sooner than you think…)
- The “fault line” every gold investor needs to look out for on the run up
- His single best ticker in the stock market right now
- A group of stocks he spotted that look set to outperform the S&P by leaps and bounds
- His “hands off” stocks Trump could still tank with a single move
- The “upside down” rebound of the Mag7
- And the 7 tickers he’s watching through year-end
No guarantees of results, but Nate’s offering you no fluff. No hype.
Just straight signals from a guy who backs every idea with his own capital.
I’d lock in your seat now.
