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We just witnessed the largest VIX crush in recorded history — dropping from highs of 60 back in April down to 15 now. This isn’t just another volatility compression. This is unprecedented territory that’s creating conditions I haven’t seen since 2013-14.
And if history is any guide, what comes next could reshape how we approach the markets for the rest of the year.
The Coiling Market That Can’t Stay Compressed Forever
Here’s what’s happening beneath the surface. We’ve been in this relentless melt-up pattern — coiling higher and higher without any real ventilation. The market has been thrust into orbit and we’re all just floating like astronauts, drifting higher without gravity taking over.
But that can’t last forever.
When VIX drops below 15, we’re talking about daily moves of less than 1% — an environment so calm it feels artificial. I’ve been fading these levels when we approach them because something has to give.
The last time we saw a low-volatility environment this extreme was back in 2013-2014. And what happened next was a complete game-changer.
The dollar got extremely volatile and strong in August and September of 2014, and everything pretty much doubled in volatility.
Why August Could Be the Inflection Point
Look, I’m not calling for an immediate crash, but I am saying the market needs to breathe. Eventually, gravity has to take over, and we need some kind of pop to let the market fall and stop this endless drift higher.
The setup reminds me of a pressure cooker. The more compressed volatility becomes, the more explosive the eventual release tends to be. And with this historic pivot off the April 7 bottom and April 9 rally, we’ve built up an enormous amount of potential energy.
The question isn’t whether we’ll see volatility return — it’s when and how dramatic it will be. Based on the parallels I’m seeing with 2014, August could be when this low-volatility environment finally breaks.
This is the kind of setup that separates prepared traders from everyone else. Don’t get caught floating in space when gravity kicks back in.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. If It Feels Quiet, That’s Usually a Signal
Every major market move follows the same cycle, and if you don’t know what stage we’re in…
You’re playing a dangerous game. Take a look at this chart:
Most traders only wake up during the markup phase, when prices are flying and headlines are bullish.
That’s when the emotional buying starts…
And it’s also when Wall Street is already preparing to distribute their shares, leaving retail traders holding the bag.
But what if you could spot the accumulation phases, before the rest of the market catches on?
That’s exactly what I revealed in my latest briefing…
How to use these “pinch point” setups to anticipate the next breakout, not chase it.
The next breakout candidate is already consolidating quietly…
Naturally, I cannot promise future returns or against losses…
But it’s only a matter of time before the smart money catches on.
