It’s back — the dreaded death cross. The 50-day moving average has officially crossed below the 200-day on the S&P 500 daily chart.
That’s typically seen as a bearish technical signal, and historically, it hasn’t been great for risk assets. But the context this time around is what makes it especially dangerous.
This isn’t just some random crossover.
This is the first true death cross on the daily chart since May 2022 — nearly three years ago — and the last one came during an active bear market that didn’t bottom until months later. It’s a rare signal, and it’s showing up right when multiple structural risks are stacking up.
Not Just Technical — It’s Timing With a Macro Mess
Let’s get real…
This death cross doesn’t exist in a vacuum. It’s dropping right in the middle of a 90-day tariff pause that ends in early July, Fed rate cut expectations that could backfire like they did in 2024, and an employment picture that’s poised to get uglier by the fall.
On top of that, earnings reactions are completely unhinged — UnitedHealth Group (UNH) dropped 20% on a move that should’ve been closer to 7%. When technical weakness pairs with headline-driven chaos, you’ve got a market ripe for failure.
That’s why I’m not trying to time anything. I’m hedging for the next six to 12 months. Because if this death cross plays out like it did in 2022, we could be in for more lower lows before the dust settles.
And if the market somehow rallies from here, fine — I’ll use it as a gift to layer into better positions. But this is a warning shot, and if you’re ignoring it, you’re not paying attention.
What History Says — and What It Doesn’t
Here’s the thing: A death cross doesn’t always trigger a crash. But it does tell you that something’s changed in the trend. And right now, with sentiment already in the basement — eight straight weeks of 50%-plus AAII survey bears — the market could chop sideways or fake everyone out with a relief rally before another flush.
The bottom line? I’m not betting on a clean resolution. Whether we’re heading for a rangebound year or a deeper leg down, this is a time to manage risk, not chase bottoms.
Death crosses don’t guarantee a crash — but when one shows up with this much macro baggage behind it, it’s hard to see how the bulls win.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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