The Math That Explains Why Option Buyers Lose and Sellers Win

by | Mar 31, 2026

🚨 I’ll be live at 9 a.m. ET🚨

We got an end-of-the-month and quarter rip — the market is loving the idea of an off-ramp from the war in Iran, so we’ll discuss how to de-risk and de-leverage with this gift and more [tap to join us for the Daily Profit Plan]!

 

Most retail traders have the options game completely backward — and it’s costing them serious money.

When someone buys a call or put option, they’re paying a premium to control 100 shares of stock, hoping the market moves their way over a specific period. But the harsh truth is this: 85-90% of all options expire worthless at expiration.

In an ideal world, if the option buyer is losing 85%, 90%, even 95% of the time, it stands to reason that if we’re selling options to those speculators, we are winning most of the time.

That means most buyers are handing money to the market day after day, just waiting for time decay to drain their premium. It’s the equivalent of sitting at a slot machine, pulling the handle over and over.

If you’re sitting down at that slot machine pulling that handle, you are the sucker. Those transactions are coming out of your pocket and going straight to the casino.

But selling options changes everything.

Becoming the House Instead of the Gambler

Options have always been a zero-sum game — going back to 1973 for stock options and 1981 for index options. When a buyer loses, a seller typically wins.

But if you sell options, you’re essentially switching sides. Instead of being the sucker, you become the house. You become the casino. You’re collecting the transactional money while others make speculative directional bets.

This shift in perspective is what separates consistent income traders from emotional speculators. It’s not about hoping for a huge move or gambling on a hunch. It’s about positioning yourself where the probabilities already favor you before the trade even begins.

The Statistical Edge That Produces High Win Rates

Option selling is rooted in probability, not prediction. If buyers lose most of the time, sellers naturally win most of the time — and decades of market behavior reinforce this advantage.

It’s why this approach has produced consistent results and why it’s been at the core of my high-probability strategies for years.

Risk management also plays a major role in this consistency. My income trades are designed specifically to limit the number of losses. The strategy emphasizes repeatable setups, controlled risk and clear expectations — not reckless bets.

Combine the statistical edge with disciplined risk management and you’ve positioned yourself on the same side of the table as the casino. That’s where stability comes from. That’s where the edge lives. And that’s where traders find consistency instead of chaos.

I’ll see you in the markets.

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading 

Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!

Important Note: No one from the ProsperityPub team or Chris Pulver Trading will ever contact you directly on Telegram.

*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

P.S. 1 Trade. 1 Ticker. 1 Time a Week

That’s how my research has shown to leverage a little-known niche in the options market to target income every Monday around noon…

With near-perfect accuracy. 

Want the entire breakdown?

Yes, Show Me This One-Ticker Secret!

We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The trades expressed are from an 11-year backtest on 543 trades. The result was a 97.1% win rate, an average return of 17% (winners and losers), and an average hold time of 11 days. Every “Weekly Windfall” targets roughly $1,000 in income based on $5,000 in risk, and every example is based on that same risk unless otherwise stated (Although you can get started with just a couple of hundred bucks). From 9/30/24 – 2/27/26 on 128 live trades, the win rate is 94%, 16% average return (winners and losers) with an average hold time of 12 days.

What to read next