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I’ve been crunching numbers on market probabilities lately, and what I found has completely changed how I’m thinking about trade selection going forward.
We all know the market doesn’t move in a straight line. But what if I told you there’s a measurable, statistical edge baked into the market’s structure — and that most traders ignore it completely?
Here’s what the data shows: On any given day, there’s about a 54-55% chance the market closes bullish. Not earth-shattering on its own — but stay with me.
When you zoom out to a monthly time frame, that probability jumps to 60-63%. And on a yearly basis over the past 40 years, there’s a 77-80% chance we see a bullish year.
That’s not opinion. That’s historical precedent. And it’s exactly why I’m building my approach around these probabilities.
Adapting to Market Conditions
Understanding the market’s natural bias is one thing. Knowing how to adapt to day‑to‑day conditions is where the real edge shows up. Markets often operate within predictable ranges, and when those patterns show themselves, you can use them to your advantage.
For example, if the market has drifted for a couple days and price action compresses into a tight window — say within a range of around 31 points — it’s not unusual to see the session close inside that range.
Moves like this reflect market maker expectations. They reveal when volatility is likely expanding or contracting, which directly affects trade selection. When the market telegraphs that it wants to stay contained, there’s no reason to force directional trades.
When it shows signs of strength with probabilities behind it, that’s when the bullish edge becomes incredibly powerful.
Adapting isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about recognizing the structure that’s already in motion and aligning with it rather than fighting it.
Strategy Spotlight
With probabilities and market conditions on your side, the next step is using strategies that actually capitalize on them. One tool I’ve been using more often is the ratio spread — a structure that lets you build a position with defined risk, favorable skew and the potential for outsized returns when the market behaves within expected ranges.
A ratio spread is clean and efficient: You buy one option and sell more than one at a different strike. When volatility is elevated or the market is likely to stay inside a contained area before drifting upward, this strategy can position you with minimal cost and attractive upside.
It’s a way to lean into the house edge without exposing yourself to unnecessary risk.
This is the same philosophy behind the approach I’m launching in January. We’re focusing on setups that can double our money with tight, clearly defined risk — only when the market’s alignment supports it.
If the market is bullish, we stay bullish. If it’s not, we stay out.
It’s that simple. Let the market clear out the casualties while you’re on the sidelines preserving capital. Then step back in when the coast is clear and probabilities are back in your favor.
The house always wins because the house only plays when it has an edge. There’s no reason we can’t do the same.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. Macro Monday: Your Market Map for the Week
Welcome to Macro Monday. We’re focusing on the forces shaping the market and how to position for them this week.
Join me live at 9 a.m. ET in the Daily Profit Plan room.
We’ll cover:
- Big picture and Weekly Outlook – a clear assessment of the flows currently driving the market, including sectors and instruments showing the strongest activity.
- Waterfall Income Showcase – a step-by-step walkthrough of this week’s most actionable opportunity, highlighting entry points, risk considerations and trade structure.
The session is designed to give you a concrete plan for the week, supported by real-time analysis and examples.
