Sentiment Says Crash, Price Says Rally — I’m Taking the Contrarian Bet

by Chris Pulver | Jun 24, 2026

There’s something happening right now that caught my attention — and it’s not what the headlines are screaming about. We’re trading just a whisker away from all-time highs at 7,620, yet if you look at sentiment data, you’d think we’re on the verge of a total meltdown.

Bearish sentiment has dominated for five consecutive weeks, and before that we saw the same negativity persist through February, March and April — right when the market was setting up for a strong move higher.

This is classic contrarian setup territory, and it’s exactly why I think the pain trade remains to the upside. I approach the market with a methodical mindset, aiming to stack up a steady flow of winners over the course of the year instead of trying to nail home runs.

That long-term focus shapes how I interpret stretches like this and why persistent pessimism near highs matters so much.

The Sentiment Divergence That Matters

We had a brief window in May when bulls emerged saying they were back in town, but that optimism evaporated quickly. Now we’re back to persistent negativity despite the market holding near record levels.

What stands out here isn’t just bearish sentiment by itself but the fact that consumer confidence and other major sentiment measures remain deeply depressed.

Markets don’t typically top when investors are nervous. They top when people get euphoric, when sentiment readings push into extreme optimism and the crowd fully embraces the rally. We’re nowhere near that.

Instead we have a market grinding higher while sentiment stays entrenched in fear, which historically creates more runway.

Why I’m Not Worried About a Bear Market

Look, I get the concerns. We’re extended, we’ve had a massive run and there are plenty of reasons to be cautious. But there’s also too much fiscal spending and too much tied to the AI narrative for this market to unwind quickly. To me, the conditions look more like the early stages of an irrational exuberance phase than the end of one.

I also don’t trade with the expectation that everything needs to happen in one explosive move. My focus is on consistent participation, not chasing oversized weekly payouts. I’m not trying to squeeze $10,000 out of a single week. I’m looking to build sustainable gains over time, letting the market’s structure and sentiment backdrop guide my positioning rather than emotion or urgency.

That’s why this environment doesn’t worry me. The majority remains defensive while price continues to push higher and that mismatch tends to resolve with an upside acceleration. Until sentiment turns euphoric and the crowd starts chasing, the path of least resistance remains higher.

I’ll see you in the markets.

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading

Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!