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The S&P 500 (SPX) finally poked through the April 9 highs this week, but now we’re staring straight at one of the biggest technical tests of the year. The 5,500 level isn’t just another round number — it’s the line in the sand where bulls either prove their strength…
Or get shoved back into another sell-the-rally cycle.
Right now, I’m cautious. A clean breakout above 5,500, especially with a strong close, could open the door to a drift higher toward 5,700 or even 5,800. That’s the melt-up scenario.
If earnings keep coming in solid — like Google parent Alphabet’s (GOOG; GOOGL) surprise pop — and we see momentum continue, then the bulls can keep pressing the advantage.
But if the S&P 500 struggles here and we get a hard rejection off this level, it is going to confirm the bears are still defending key resistance. That would tell me the market is still stuck in sell-the-rally mode, and any bounce is just another opportunity for the downside to reload.
We would likely see a sharp pullback, possibly filling gaps from earlier this week, and maybe even revisiting recent lows.
How to Trade It
The setup is pretty simple. If we break cleanly above 5,500 with some follow-through, I’ll look for short-term upside targets in the 5,600 to 5,700 zone, tightening stops along the way.
The risk is manageable because if the move fails quickly, I can just cut it and get out.
On the flip side, if we hit 5,500 and reject — especially with a nasty red candle — that’s my signal to be defensive. I’ll be looking at tightening existing positions, taking profits on stretched longs, and maybe even initiating some tactical shorts or hedges.
A strong rejection would set up another big range for traders to work with, but it would not be a time to get stubbornly bullish.
Bottom line: Be flexible.
This is one of those spots where the next 20 to 30 points on the S&P 500 will either light a fire under the market or slam the brakes hard. Either way, the trade should set up cleanly if you stay disciplined and listen to what price action is telling you.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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