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Let me be straight about something — I’m not trying to be a hero this week.
We’re deep into holiday trading, and if you’ve been watching the markets lately, you know exactly what I’m talking about. Five out of six trading days have exceeded their expected market maker moves.
That’s not normal. That’s a market lacking efficiency, and when efficiency disappears, so does my willingness to take big swings.
Wednesday was an absolute grind — micromanaging trades, adjusting positions, watching every tick. Like many others, I’m heading to the airport to pick up family, and I have a 6 a.m. flight myself. So I’m adapting my approach accordingly.
Here’s the reality: Every trade is about your willingness to risk capital. And right now, during this holiday period with erratic moves and unpredictable price action, I’m perfectly comfortable risking very little — or nothing at all.
I’m not suddenly going to flip to some aggressive posture where we go 30 or 40 wide and hope the market gives us 50-plus points. This environment has proven to be a lot of work in managing positions, and forcing trades doesn’t make it any easier.
Small Positions, Small Expectations
My positioning Thursday reflected exactly where my head is at. I’ve got a daily profit play pending with eight to nine deltas — pretty low risk, and I’m letting price come to me rather than chasing anything.
I’m fine risking a little bit of money here and there but no crazy contract sizes. If I get filled on the Daily Profit Play, the mechanics should work in my favor. If not, I’m completely OK with that outcome.
If we have a decent win at 50 cents, I’m still happy with that as a net result — grab a couple hundred bucks for the holidays, maybe some Starbucks with family, a nice breakfast, great dinner. That’s the mentality right now.
Compare that to forcing larger positions in an environment where gamma levels are all over the place and the market’s very difficult to predict and pin. That’s not a recipe for smart risk management — that’s a recipe for unnecessary losses.
And if you’re feeling the same way about this environment, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that.
What Happens When Efficiency Returns
Now, here’s what I’m really curious about: By the time we roll back into Jan. 5 or Jan. 12, we’re hopefully going to be back to market efficiency.
That’s when I’ll be ready to lean in again with more conviction. But right now, during this holiday stretch, I’m prioritizing capital preservation and family time over forcing trades that don’t have edge.
The market will give us plenty of opportunities in the new year. Right now, I’m comfortable being selective, keeping positions small and walking away happy with modest wins. If you’re approaching the market the same way, you’re doing exactly what you should be doing in a period like this.
Sometimes the best trade is the one you don’t force.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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