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I’m positioning for Russell 2000’s breakout to $300+ with a structure that can’t be threatened even in a worst-case scenario
I’m seeing one of the most compelling setups heading into 2026, and I structured it with exceptional safety. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is pushing toward all-time highs around $244, and it recently broke out of a long-term channel that projects a measured move to 300-plus.
With that breakout, the path of least resistance is still higher, even if we bump into short-term channel resistance along the way.
Rather than chase strength, I positioned with an ultra-conservative structure that gets time working for me regardless of direction.
The Structure That Changes Everything
I put on a $200/$190 put ratio spread for the January 15, 2027, expiration, selling two puts at $190 and buying one at $200, and collected $1.09 in credit.
With IV rank sitting around 50 and no volatility event to inflate premium, I’m keeping the risk profile extremely conservative. If the VIX kicks higher and IV expands, I’ll be ready to scale into richer credits.
The $200 level would require a drop back to prices we haven’t seen since early this year, and $190 lines up with the March lows. Both levels are tied to areas typically reached only during deep pullbacks or panic-driven selloffs, which gives this spread historically rare safety buffers.
And despite that distance, the credit was still solid because the structure is so efficient. Each unit only ties up about $1,700 in margin, making it accessible even for smaller portfolios.
The math seals it. My break-even sits at $178.92 — more than 40% below the current price. That creates a 99.5% probability of profit. And if IWM somehow collapses into those levels, I’m fully comfortable getting assigned.
Owning shares around $179 would be a discount you rarely see, and I’d immediately begin repairing the position with covered calls to work my cost basis even lower.
Assignment isn’t a failure — it’s a plan.
Why I’m Being Conservative on a Bullish Thesis
Even though my technical read supports IWM grinding toward $300-plus over time, I don’t need that move for this trade to work. The breakout from the multiyear range, the measured move projection, and the upward extension of the channel all point to higher prices.
But I don’t build my strategy around single outcomes — I build it around probabilities.
I also think bigger than single-account positioning. I anchor these kinds of trades across nine accounts, stacking the odds in my favor through diversified, repeatable risk-taking. This ratio spread delivered about $550 per position, totaling roughly $4,900 across all placements, letting time decay do what it does best.
My edge has always come from stacking lots of small, high-probability trades and staying unemotional about the rare, manageable losses.
Over time the math overwhelmingly favors this process, and that consistency is what compounds results. Markets can shift quickly, and that’s why I preload defensive trades like this — if volatility picks up or we get uglier sessions, I’m already positioned for whatever headlines bring.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver TradingÂ
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
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