The final push toward all-time highs is on, but if you’re chasing blindly, you’re going to get torched.
Markets ripped higher after the Israel-Iran ceasefire headlines, with the S&P 500 gapping up about 1.25% and flirting with the 6,100 level by the close Tuesday — a move that landed perfectly in line with the 1.11% target I projected in the morning based on the VIX rule of 16.
I took some profits on the early move, skipped the late-session setups, and hit a fresh all-time high in the portfolio. But I’m not going full risk-on here. The tape might keep melting up, but this is the phase where you’ve got to be tactical.
You’re not buying breakouts now — you’re waiting for better entries.
Divergences Are Building Under the Surface
The price action looks strong, but internals are telling a different story. On the daily charts, I’m seeing hidden bearish divergence on both the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) — price is making new highs, but momentum and RSI are not.
That doesn’t mean the top is in, but it does mean the easy part of the rally is behind us.
Weekly charts are still supportive, and I’m not about to fight a melt-up — especially when seasonality favors July strength. But the divergence is there, and I’d rather wait for a pullback to buy than force trades into thin air.
The healthiest scenario would be a flush down into demand zones — 5,850 to 5,900 on the S&P 500 would be ideal — then a bounce back toward highs. I want dips I can buy, not melt-up candles that leave me chasing.
Stay Long — But Stay Smart
This isn’t about turning bearish. It’s about acknowledging where we are. The Nasdaq 100 is at all-time highs. The S&P 500 is within 100 points. Breadth is improving and volatility is dropping, but the risk-reward up here is skewed.
I’m still long on my core positions, selling covered calls and collecting premium while we grind higher. I’m not layering into short trades, and I’m not cashing everything out.
But I am cautious. If the market offers a reasonable correction, I’ll be there to load up.
Until then, I’m not fighting momentum — I’m just refusing to be the last one in before the rug gets pulled.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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