How I’m Trading Tesla and Meta for Earnings After the Close

by | Jan 29, 2025

Tesla (TSLA) and Meta Platform (META) earnings are set to drop after the bell… 

And for Tesla, the options market is pricing in a move around $35. But based on historical price action and recent volatility, I think the real number could be closer to $40 to $41.

That kind of move presents a prime trading opportunity — if you know how to structure it correctly.

Seven or eight out of the last 10 Tesla earnings reports have seen at least a 10% move. That’s why I priced my trade at a 10% to 10.5% expected move, which puts Tesla’s price swing around $40 to $41. The stock is currently trading at $390, meaning a strong report could send it toward $430 — while a miss could knock it down just as easily.

How I’m Trading It

I’ve structured a bull put spread for the upside, and a bear put spread for the downside. If Tesla moves in either direction, I’ll have a chance to profit.

If one side loses but the other wins, I still walk away with around $140 to $150 net profit per contract. Not bad for an overnight earnings play!

Given Tesla’s history of post-earnings volatility, there’s a real chance it rips beyond market expectations. If we get a Netflix-style move — something 1 ½ to two standard deviations beyond the expected range — I’ll be well-positioned to capitalize.

And if Tesla surprises to the downside, I have dollar-cost average levels ready to buy more shares.

This trade isn’t about predicting direction — it’s about capitalizing on movement. With Elon Musk staying close to the White House and Tesla’s history of earnings fireworks, there’s plenty of reason to expect action.

Whether it’s a $40 to $50 rip higher or a similar-sized drop, I just need a move big enough to cash in.

How I’m Trading Meta

I’m trading Meta (META) into earnings with a focus on its strong momentum and historical post-earnings moves. The stock has already rallied about $50 off recent lows, pushing into all-time highs despite some market-wide volatility.

Market makers are pricing in a roughly $49 move by Friday, which means we could see META trading near the $710 to $715 range if the report delivers a strong beat.

On the call side, I need the stock to clear $702.50 to make money, while a drop below $620 benefits my put side. Given META’s solid cash position and history of beating earnings expectations, I’m leaning bullish — but I’m prepared to profit in either direction.

If we get another explosive move like the last earnings cycle, I could see META pushing well beyond its expected move before eventually fading in the next 30 to 60 days.

That’s something I’ll be watching closely post-earnings for a potential reversal trade. For now, I’m positioned to take advantage of volatility, whether META gaps up or pulls back sharply.

Earnings season is a trader’s market. If you’re not trading Tesla and Meta’s expected move, you’re leaving money on the table.

I’ll see you in the markets.

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading

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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

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