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We’ll cover what historical pauses follow a 9-week bullish streak in the S&P 500, an ITM SPX put condor bonus trade for Tuesday, a recap of April and May’s massive market strength, and Dell’s crazy to the moon 3x earnings move [tap to join us for the Daily Profit Plan]
I spent some time Friday morning digging into something that’s been nagging at me — we’re currently sitting on nine consecutive bullish weekly candles in the S&P 500 Index (SPX).
That kind of relentless momentum doesn’t come around often, and when it does, history usually tells us exactly what to expect next.
These streaks tend to show up after major structural resets. Look at how this current run launched off the back of a deep, months-long cycle.
After a prolonged decline, the market carved out a massive base and exploded off the lows. That context makes these streaks powerful, but it also makes them incredibly hard to sustain without an interruption.
The Historical Patterns: Stretched to the Limit
The last time we saw nine consecutive higher weekly closes was at the end of 2023, right after the market wrapped up a sharp 10% correction into late October.
Coming off that low, the index climbed for nine straight weeks — every single close higher than the last. At the top of that ninth week, the tape faded into the close and immediately surrendered about 2.5%.
It wasn’t a structural crash, but it was a necessary breather.
We see a similar signature further back. In 2018, the market pushed higher for nine out of 10 weeks following a sharp correction.
That move paused for roughly four weeks before attempting to regain momentum, then eventually rolled over into a deeper 8% to 10% pullback.
Even the near-perfect runs tell the exact same story. In 2017, the market logged 10 out of 11 winning weeks before settling into a multi-week grind.
Perfect or near-perfect, these runs eventually hit structural exhaustion.
Why I’m Positioned for at Least a Pause
This doesn’t mean the rally has to completely fall apart here. It just means the mathematical probabilities heavily lean toward a slowdown, and I want to be positioned exactly where the numbers favor.
That’s why I’m focusing on defined-risk setups like bear call spreads and the occasional put condor instead of trying to aggressively short a parabolic trend.
If I’m early, my risk is strictly capped. If the market finally exhales, the portfolio is already structurally aligned to benefit.
I’m also keeping a close eye on the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX). With the VIX sitting under 16, long volatility options act as a highly reasonable form of portfolio insurance.
If we encounter turbulence during these summer months, a swift reversion back toward the mid-20s or even 30 wouldn’t surprise me.
It’s been a while since defensive hedging mattered because upside momentum has steamrolled everything in its path.
But when markets go parabolic and sentiment feels invincible, the mean-reversion moves tend to hit the hardest.
I’m not trying to predict headlines or macroeconomic noise. This is about respecting technical exhaustion, respecting historical data, and playing the raw probabilities while keeping risk strictly defined and eyes open.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver TradingÂ
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