It’s no secret the market has been on edge — and today is a bloodbath following President Donald Trump’s big announcement late Wednesday.
Between tariff headlines, earnings uncertainty and sentiment shifting every other day, it’s been a messy start to Q2. But if you zoom out, there’s one thing that hasn’t changed in over 20 years: seasonality.
April, May and June are historically some of the most bullish months of the year. Over the past two decades, those three months have delivered green closes roughly 65% to 70% of the time. Not just once or twice — consistently. That doesn’t mean 2025 will follow the script, but it does mean traders should at least be aware of the pattern.
What to Watch as Q2 Unfolds
The question now is simple: Can seasonality overpower fear?
We’ve had a 10% pullback in the major indexes, and while that’s nothing new, it’s enough to make traders think twice about risk. But the recent bounce has some legs — especially if we can avoid another wave of volatility tied to tariffs or disappointing earnings.
The big unknowns still lie ahead. Mega-cap tech names like Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta (META) don’t report until later this month. Financials will kick things off first, and that could give the market a short-term catalyst, especially if banks like JPMorgan (JPM) or Bank of America (BAC) show strength.
But if this quarter follows the usual playbook, we could see prices grind higher before summer. That’s especially true if inflation keeps cooling and the 10-year yield drifts lower — both of which we’re already starting to see.
Don’t Forget the Setup Into Summer
Even though volatility has spiked, we’re not far from all-time highs. And a strong April could change the tone fast. If we get even a mild relief rally, the Bulls have a real shot to retest those levels by early summer.
That said, the bigger concern isn’t right now — it’s Q3. Liquidity dries up in the back half of the year, and if rates haven’t come down meaningfully by then, the market could hit another air pocket. That’s why I’ve been emphasizing protection — using crash insurance, rolling income trades and managing risk tightly.
For now, though, I’m leaning on seasonality. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s enough of an edge to stay tactical. As long as prices stay above key levels — especially the 200-day moving average — I’ll be looking to take profits on strength and keep hedges in place for whatever comes next.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. We’re Going LIVE and UNFILTERED
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