A Tesla Trade With Nearly No Downside — and an $1,800 Payday If It Hits

by Chris Pulver | Mar 28, 2025

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One of the cleanest setups on my screen this week was in Tesla (TSLA). It was a simple income trade, short time frame, low risk — and it carried a 97% probability of success.

I like those odds.

It’s one of those trades where I’ve already collected my credit, and as long as price holds above $250 through expiration, the position closes for a full profit.

Not bad, considering I didn’t have to do much other than wait.

A Textbook Profit Trap

The trade structure was straightforward. I sold the $250 strike put expiring today. My credit on the trade was $128, and heading into the final day of expiration, I was already sitting on about $140 in open profit. I could have closed it early, taken the win, and moved on.

But here’s where it gets interesting — the position created what I call a “profit trap.”

That’s when the trade has a capped max profit, but any brief dip into the strike zone could spike the payout significantly. In this case, if TSLA pulls back and finishes the day closer to $255, I could net up to $600 per contract instead of just $140.

That’s the kind of asymmetry I love.

I’ve already made money. There’s virtually no risk unless Tesla collapses under $250 in one day — which, based on current volatility and delta values, has a less than 3% chance of happening.

And if price grinds lower in a tight range, the trade actually gets more valuable. That’s a rare edge you don’t see often, especially in a high-flyer like TSLA.

Why These Trades Work

This is what I mean when I talk about stacking small wins and using defined-risk setups to keep drawdowns minimal. I’m not going all-in on direction. I’m not trying to predict every tick. I’m just taking high-probability income trades, one after the next, and letting time decay and structure do the heavy lifting.

It’s also why I’m not concerned about whether the market is bullish or bearish in the short term. I’m running these kinds of setups across the board — SPX, NDX, QQQ, XLE — and if the structure is right and the probabilities are there, I’ll take the trade.

Tesla was just the latest example. I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves: 97% probability of success, a capped risk profile, and an $1,800 max profit if the stars align.

This is what trading through uncertainty looks like. Small risk, high edge and consistency. Let the market do what it’s going to do — I’ll be ready either way.

I’ll see you in the markets.

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading

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