3 Scenarios for a Santa Rally

by | Dec 16, 2024

LIVE AT 1 PM ET: THREE STOCKS THAT SHOULD BE ENTERING THEIR SEASONAL SURGE PERIOD TODAY!

As we close out 2024, traders everywhere are asking the same question: Will the Santa rally show up this year, or has it already been priced in? 

Let’s break down what’s happening and what to expect as we head into the holiday trading season..

Historically, the final stretch of the year tends to see markets grind higher. This year has been no exception, with a bull market that’s been alive and well since Q4 2022. 

Even after two minor hiccups — April’s stagnation and August’s volatility — markets have clawed back to all-time highs. November delivered one of the best performances on record, and December, while quieter, is still showing signs of upward drift.

But here’s the kicker… 

The rally has been happening on low volume. That doesn’t exactly scream “strength,” but it’s been enough to keep the markets pushing higher. Key levels across major indices remain intact, and price action has yet to signal any real breakdowns. 

So, where does that leave us for the rest of December?

3 Scenarios for a Santa Rally

  1. Drifting Higher

    If the Fed keeps things quiet next week, the path of least resistance will likely be up. With limited trading days around Christmas and New Year’s, the market could squeeze out a few more points, slowly marching to higher highs. Don’t expect explosive momentum — this is more about a steady grind higher, fueled by algorithmic trading and seasonal optimism.

  2. Sideways Chop

    The Fed could also throw a wrench into the works. If its upcoming decisions create uncertainty without a clear market-moving catalyst, we could see prices stuck in a range. In this scenario, traders are left treading water — low momentum, limited gains, and no real breakdowns to trade.

  3. Fed-Induced Volatility

    The wildcard is whether the Fed makes too much noise this week. If the market perceives rate cuts as reckless or inflation data prints hotter than expected, volatility could spike. That could lead to a sell-off — though it’s unlikely the market will end the year on a sour note, as most players prefer a strong finish for the books.

So, will the Santa rally deliver? If the Fed keeps the noise to a minimum, the rally may have enough steam to push into 2025. 

But if the market gets spooked by inflation trends or sees a breakdown in key levels — like the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) slipping below $515, we could be looking at a very different start to the new year.

If you want to learn more about some seasonal plays — including three stocks with seasonal windows opening as soon as today — join me and Roger at 1 p.m. ET!

I’ll see you in the markets.

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading

Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!

*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

P.S. LIVE AT 1 PM ET: 3 Stocks Set to Surge as Soon as TODAY

I’ll be on Zoom at 1 p.m. ET today, Dec. 16, with my friend Roger Scott in just a few hours. 

Roger’s seasonality software just identified THREE little-known stocks showing the same pattern… And for the first time ever, my separate seasonality tools are showing the exact same setup.

These THREE stocks are predicted to surge as early as today!

The hold time? Just 10 days. 

And we’re giving you the tickers absolutely free.

Of course, I have to mention that all trading carries risk. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, and you should never trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

That said, when two completely different seasonality tools align like this, we pay attention. 

In Roger’s near-31 years of professional trading, including managing money for some of the world’s wealthiest families, we can tell you with confidence that these look like killer setups. 

Reserve Your Spot here

 

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