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1 Tweet Could Trigger a Rally Back to All-Time Highs

by | Mar 9, 2026

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Let me lay out something that’s been on my mind — and it’s probably the most contrarian take you’ll hear right now.

While everyone’s debating whether we’re witnessing the beginning of the end or pricing in maximum chaos, I’m focused on what I believe is the biggest upside risk to markets.

Deescalation is just one Truth Social post away. The market’s becoming incredibly polarized.

I’m finding fewer people in the bullish camp right now because it takes all the emotional side of negative sentiment, risk-off trading, escalation and geopolitical tension to push people fully into the fear column.

But here’s what I keep coming back to: Nobody actually knows how this plays out.

That uncertainty itself creates opportunity.

The Political and Economic Pressure Cooker

Let’s talk about the forces that could drive deescalation faster than anyone expects. You can’t think for a second that oil prices up 65% for the year will look good for what inflation readings will show over the next 30-60 days.

That alone puts enormous pressure on political decision-making. When rising energy costs threaten to spill into broader inflation data, it becomes increasingly hard for leadership to justify any stance that prolongs instability.

Economic and political incentives start aligning toward cooling things off, not escalating further. Look, I don’t know how this is all contained or if we’ve already overstepped.

But that’s exactly the point — the uncertainty cuts both ways. And right now, the market’s pricing maximum risk without considering the very real possibility of rapid resolution.

Why One Headline Could Change Everything

Here’s the setup that has my attention — deescalation will be a much bigger risk to the upside than most people think. It’s not here yet, but that’s all it would take.

A deescalation announcement that the market gets behind could trigger immediate flows back into equities that push us right back toward all-time highs. When positioning is skewed, relief becomes rocket fuel.

I’d say this will be treated by markets similar to what we saw during Liberation Day 2025 — waiting for the administration to deescalate the whole situation. Once that shift came, everything snapped back far faster than consensus expected.

I think this is a nice way to cool off the froth of the bullishness, and it might require some more downside or more pain. But the deescalation thesis is probably very real — it just hasn’t happened yet.

So we sit back, stay patient and watch for the signal that shifts everything. And in the meantime, trade with your eyes wide open.

Don’t overcommit or overleverage. This is the environment where you look for good opportunities, not hero trades.

The market’s polarized, sentiment’s stretched and nobody knows what happens next. That’s exactly when you want to be thinking about the scenarios everyone else’s ignoring.

I’ll see you in the markets.

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading 

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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

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We develop strategies to the best of our ability, but we cannot guarantee a future return. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The results shown are from a 237-trade backtest from 1/1/20 – 1/1/26. The result was a 70% win rate, 40% average return (winners and losers), with a 7-day hold time. 

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