I came across some data recently that stopped me in my tracks…
Insider selling in the first half of 2026 just hit record levels outside of the pandemic. I’m talking about a 20% increase in net selling by the people who know their companies better than anyone else on the planet.
Now, before you panic, let me give you some context…
Corporate insiders — CEOs, C-suite executives, board members — sell shares all the time. It’s normal. A lot of them get issued shares as part of their compensation packages, their bonuses and their equity awards. So when they sell, it doesn’t automatically mean they think the stock is going to tank.
Sometimes they’re realizing profits. Sometimes they’re diversifying. Sometimes they need liquidity for personal reasons.
But here’s the thing…
It’s definitely not great when you see a significant uptick like this.
The Last Time We Saw This Pattern
When I look at the numbers showing insider buying versus selling — orange for buying, black for selling — one thing jumps out immediately. The black bars have always been higher than the orange because, again, executives sell shares regularly.
But the recent spike — that’s different.
We’ve seen this movie before. The last major surge like this happened in the first half of 2021. Investors barely blinked at the time because markets were still climbing.
But the following year brought a very different environment. That earlier wave of selling didn’t cause what came next, but it did foreshadow a shift beneath the surface.
I’m not saying insider selling alone predicts crashes. That would be oversimplifying it. But when corporate insiders — the people with the most intimate knowledge of their companies’ prospects and the broader economic environment — are choosing to liquidate positions at elevated rates, it’s a data point worth noting.
Part of a Bigger Picture
And this isn’t the only bearish indicator I’ve been tracking lately…
When you combine this insider selling data with record-high earnings per share revisions and some other metrics I’m watching, you start to see a pattern forming.
What’s especially interesting is how this selling coincides with current market sentiment. Even with the S&P 500 (SPY) sitting close to all-time highs, fear is still the dominant mood underneath the surface.
That disconnect — strong index performance paired with underlying anxiety — adds weight to the insider activity we’re seeing.
It’s not about any single data point. It’s about how they align.
I’m not trying to scare you or predict doom. But I am trying to make sure you’re paying attention to what the smartest money in the room is doing. And right now, a lot of that money is moving toward the exits.
Does that mean you should sell everything? Of course not. But it does mean you should be thinking about your risk management, your position sizing and whether your portfolio is built to handle increased volatility.
Because when the people running the companies start selling at record levels, it’s usually not because everything is great.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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