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A lot of traders love to guess. They see a tight base and want to jump in before the breakout happens. But for me — I’d rather follow the trend than try to predict the future.
That’s the difference between breakout anticipation and trend following…
Anticipation is hoping. Trend following is reacting. One puts you in before confirmation — the other waits until there’s proof.
I’m not saying anticipation can’t work. It can. But you’re trading with less information — and usually lower odds.
If I’m looking at a setup in something like Netflix (NFLX), I want to see confirmation. Not just a nice chart. I want to see it actually push through resistance with volume — and hold.
That’s why I’d rather be a little late and right than early and wrong. Breakout anticipation might get you a better entry — but it also gets you chopped up more. How many times have you seen a stock break a level intraday, only to fail into the close?
That’s the trap.
With trend following, I’m looking for momentum that’s already in play. I want to see price above key moving averages, clean, higher highs and higher lows, and sectors like Consumer Discretionary (XLY) or Technology (XLK) leading. That tells me there’s strength behind the move — not just a one-day pop.
Patience Is KeyÂ
One of the biggest edges I’ve found is patience. Let the breakout happen. Let it prove itself. Then stalk the first pullback — or ride the momentum on the next leg up.
I don’t need to be first. I need to be right.
There are exceptions. If I’ve seen a pattern repeat enough — like a setup I’ve traded dozens of times in a name I know well — I might anticipate the breakout with a tight stop. But that’s the exception, not the rule.
A lot traders think being early is smarter. I think being accurate is smarter. And trends are easier to trade once they’re already in motion. You’re not fighting the tape — you’re flowing with it.
That’s why trend following is my go-to. I’m not chasing. I’m waiting. And when the move is real — I step in with confidence.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
P.S. The Triple Witching Event Is Set to Spin the Options Market Today!
Emily Turner of Unfiltered Finance is hosting Roger Scott, Kane Shieh, Alex Reid, and Nate Tucci at 1 p.m. ET today…
And they’ll do a deep dive into what Triple Witching actually means, give two trade ideas to navigate it and more!
The show starts at 1 o’clock sharp…
