If you have 20 minutes in the morning, you could be targeting 20% at every opening bell. Details here.
Looks like we’re heading into another D.C. stare-down.
If Trump and the Democrats can’t make a deal, we’re staring at a government shutdown — and markets don’t like that kind of uncertainty.
Here’s how I’m thinking about it — plain and simple.
My “Don’t Overthink It” Plan
When Washington plays chicken, I stick with metals.
Buy gold and silver and let it ride. They’re the cleanest hedge when headlines can flip the tape on a dime. If the shutdown gets real, metals usually catch a bid while equities wobble.
A Quick Note On Cannabis Stocks
You probably noticed weed stocks catching a bounce.
Trump’s back talking about the cannabis issue and the market is sniffing out possible movement. I’m not chasing the headlines here, but that’s the reason you’re seeing that pop.
What about stocks?
If the government actually shuts down, don’t be surprised if equities sell off. That doesn’t automatically mean a huge leg lower — just that the path of least resistance gets slippery for a bit.
The line in the sand I’m watching is on S&P futures (/ES) which is currently at 6714.50 as I write this:
- Above 6600: Nothing to worry about yet. It’s a garden-variety pullback inside an uptrend.
- Break 6600 and hold below: Odds favor a deeper flush. If that happens, I could see sellers pushing toward the 6475 area before buyers really show up.
I’m not selling doom-and-gloom. It’s just a roadmap so you’re not guessing while the headlines fly.
How I’m Positioned Into The Headlines
- Metals: Long bias — gold and silver as the first line of defense.
- Equities: I’m keeping position sizes modest and timeframes short until the shutdown drama resolves itself.
- Levels matter: 6600 is the key. If we bounce above it, fine. If we slip and stick below, I’ll get more defensive and look for that 6475 zone to hold before stepping in.
What you need to remember is that D.C. drama is noise until it isn’t.
Have a plan, respect your levels, and don’t let a headline talk you out of your rules.
Stay sharp,
— Geof
