The Rational Trader: Arbitrage in Action: A 62% SPY Win
JD explains how a flat factor score vs. futures up 50 bps led to a SPY 665/664 put debit spread — closed for a 62% gain as the market drifted back to flat.
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Tag: arbitrage
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The Rational Trader: When the News Blows Up the Trade
JD explains how a zero factor score led to a missed entry and a bad fade — until Nvidia’s $100B shock forced a reset. Tomorrow, he’s eyeing Micron for a setup.
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The Rational Trader: Fading the Melt-Up — My 50% Gain on IWM
JD explains how he used his daily arbitrage model to fade an overstretched IWM rally, turning a tough open into a 50% gain on a defined-risk put debit spread.
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The Rational Trader: When Good News Turns Bad: A SPY Call Spread Trade
JD explains how a strong retail sales report became “bad news” for the market — and how he played it with a SPY 660/661 call debit spread for a 10% gain.
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The Rational Trader: Fading the Melt-Up With a SPY Put Spread
JD faded Monday’s “melt-up” with a SPY put debit spread, buying the 661 put and selling the 660 put for $0.44, and closed it for a 70% gain.
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The Rational Trader: A Bitcoin Arbitrage Play With Defined Risk
JD shifts from earnings to arbitrage, spotting a 100-basis-point gap in Bitcoin and playing it with a defined-risk put debit spread on BDO.
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The Rational Trader: Volatility Is Fading — But the Fear Trade Might Return in August
JD recaps his favorite trade of the year — fading volatility using SVXY — and explains why August might be the next big test for this otherwise calm market.
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The Rational Trader: How I Bagged 156% in 10 Minutes — Then Pulled Off a Second Win Immediately After
JD pulled off two profitable trades in minutes using his Arbitrage Factor Score. Here’s the logic behind his 156% win — and why he flipped his bias right after.
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The Rational Trader: Why I’m Still Holding This Weird Trade
JD’s holding a volatility trade most traders would’ve bailed on — but the math still checks out. Here’s why he’s targeting $50 on SVXY and ignoring the noise.
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The Rational Trader: How I Turned a Fading QQQ Setup Into a Win on SVXY
JD planned to buy QQQ at the open — until the market priced out his edge. Here’s why he never gets married to an idea… and how he pivoted to SVXY to walk away with a clean 35 basis points.
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The Rational Trader: The 7-Factor Method I Used to Spot Today’s Arbitrage Setup
JD shares how his new 7-factor matrix helped him spot and execute a daily arbitrage trade before the market opened — and how he’ll keep using it.
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The Rational Trader: How I Faded a Volatility Spike for a Fast Win
JD spots an arbitrage opportunity after a VIX spike and books a 40bps win. Here’s how he navigated the chaos — and what it means for small caps this summer.
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