Anatomy of a Great Trade: Deep Value – TGT

by | May 17, 2024

Back in January of this year, we mentioned Target (TGT).

At the time, it was in the middle of a Deep Value journey up to “fair value”.

If you recall, TGT got involved in some controversy and some angry internet protesters vowed to push TGT into financial distress.

And they did. 

For a minute.

In October 2023, Target was pushed down far below “fair value” (the 800 simple moving average) and hit the lower Bollinger Band™. 

It seemed bad for the company at the time, but it was a good company that was being punished by a temporary emotional reaction.

Were people really going to stop going to Target for the rest of their lives?

When we talked about it in January, the stock was up over 30% and still had a way to go to get to the moving average.

What has happened since?


On April 1, 2024, TGT hit “fair value” of $179.89.

An entry at the lower Band would’ve been at $105.01.

That’s a 70% gain in about five months.

If we used a system and not emotions.

Happy trading,

— Scott Welsh


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