Forget confusing charts. See how to follow the real money!
What We See in PBF
Fewer Refineries, Simple Trade
On Friday’s Profit Panel we discussed a straightforward idea in refiners — and why PBF Energy (PBF) stood out.
What’s Changing
Several California refineries are on the way to shutting down. On Friday’s show, we talked through timelines that included one major plant closing by December and another shutting down by mid-next year, with staffing already down to a skeleton crew at one site.
When plants close, the remaining refineries often see stronger demand for their fuel. PBF is one of those survivors.
What Caught Our Eye
PBF had pushed back above a long-term average line on the chart (think of it like a “typical path” price wanders around). Getting back above that line can be a positive sign after a slump.
How We Framed A Simple And Small Trade
Rather than buying shares, our pros discussed a call debit spread to keep risk capped — specifically the Oct 17 $34/$35 spread.
Fills were quoted in the low-30-cent range (about $0.33–$0.34). That means:
- Max risk ≈ $0.34 per spread (what you pay to enter the trade).
- Max value at expiration = $1.00 if PBF is at or above $35.
- Potential gain if the stock drifts higher toward $35 before Oct 17.
Why This Fit The Story
If fewer refineries are operating, survivors can benefit. A small, defined-risk spread lets you participate without betting the house. If the move doesn’t materialize, the loss is capped on day one.
Shrinking supply (fewer and fewer plants) can help the names that remain. A small debit spread is a simple way to test that idea while keeping your downside limited.
We’re back at it with more under-the-radar plays right now:
Click here to watch the whole on-demand replay!
To your prosperity,
The ProsperityPub Team
🎰 Did You Catch This?!
CROX Pop Ain’t Free Money
Alex Reid covers the discussion about CROX’s recent pop. To trade or not to trade?
Big pops like this on a downtrending stock aren’t the best setup, but…
Here’s how to play it — IF you must!
Get Our Top Trade Idea for Q4 — FREE!
Six of our top pros are gathering tomorrow — Tuesday the 30th @ 10am Eastern…
To share their predictions for Q4… their market outlooks for the next quarter…
And most importantly — their best trade ideas for the upcoming quarter … and it’s all totally FREE!
Register here for the FREE trade ideas!
Quick hits from Friday’s show
- Nike follow-up: The short spread from earlier in the week hit ~100%. The desk preferred to let it expire to avoid extra fees—common sense when it’s already at or near zero value.
- IBM “gap + options gravity”: The Oct 17 call spread stayed on; the team reviewed why dealer risk near 275/280 can “pull” price toward those levels into expiration.
- Copper whipsaw, FCX heavy: Copper spiked overnight, then faded; FCX stayed weak. A reminder that commodities can flip quickly on supply headlines.
- Refiner peers check: Alongside PBF, the desk looked at MPC and PSX and noted where trading volume and option pricing looked friendlier.
