The Coming Crypto Winter

by | Mar 1, 2024

Originally Published March 1, 2024. Updated and expanded April 26, 2024.


Wait, what? Crypto winter?

Hasn’t Bitcoin been on fire? Triple digit gains over the past year?

And haven’t we been pushing the Bitcoin narrative for well over a year now as we expect it to continue to skyrocket over the next 18-24 months?

Yes, yes and yes.

The Crypto Winter we’re talking about is AFTER all that.

Because just like Jeffry’s predicted Bitcoin going to massive, massive highs (more on that in a minute)… He’s also warned that it’s not all roses.

Now that this Halving is behind us (having just happened 1 week ago), after this post-Halving rally completes, there will be a massive winter — just as there has been in the three previous Bitcoin Halving cycles.

But first let’s start with the good news.

Generally, the pattern we’ve seen holds that from the previous winter’s low — in this case, Bitcoin’s late 2022 low of about $15,000 per coin —  the following post-Halving rally could have us hit 10-15x growth.

That means that this rally we’re expecting now that the Halving is over could see Bitcoin reach a price of about $150,000 to $225,000 per coin.

Jeffry believes this will happen in 2025 or early 2026. That will be the peak.

And after that, there WILL be a crypto winter.

It’s just a normal part of the cycle — which, again, has happened 3 times before — during which Bitcoin will lose approximately 60-70% back down.

For those who follow Jeffry’s Fibonacci method, that would essentially be a .618 retrace.

But This Time Could Be Different

Bitcoin’s repeating cycles have been fairly predictable over the 15 years of its existence.

But one thing we’ve never had before are all the external forces constraining supply and increasing demand.

Jeffry tells us that these forces could make this current halving cycle “one for the record books.” (his exact words)

We’ve talked about it many times before, but just to recap:

The Bitcoin spot ETFs approved in early January will both constrain supply and increase demand.

On the constrained supply:
Since the ETFs will hold a certain amount of Bitcoin based on their assets, Jeffry tells us that this will permanently lock up a large chunk of Bitcoin. Possibly up to 10-15%.

And the increased demand is twofold:
First, because now that things are shifting, large institutions are starting to allocate 1% of their client holdings to Bitcoin. That alone will be a massive boost to Bitcoin.

But now the Bitcoin spot ETFs will also generate tremendous interest for retail investors who have thus far avoided Bitcoin because of complicated technical requirements necessary to hold Bitcoin directly.

Not to mention the fact that they allow large institutions to invest in Bitcoin directly — something which simply wasn’t possible before.

“It’s Like Deja Vu All Over Again”

In short, this is like living through the equivalent of when the internet went mainstream.

Do you remember the late 90s and early 2000s?

As the internet blossomed and entered more homes and businesses, e-commerce exploded. And massive companies grew out of that: Google, Amazon, Netflix and more.

But there were losers too. Some companies which appeared to be front runners at the start of the race withered to a shell of their former selves or died completely: Yahoo,, Excite, Altavista, MySpace, GeoCities…

The same will be true for Bitcoin & companies in its orbit — miners, crypto exchanges and more — if all the current forces unfold as expected.

The next 18-24 months should be very interesting for those on the right side of the massive growth.

But back to that Crypto Winter for a second:

After the massive growth, the Crypto Winter could destroy many a fortune for those on the wrong side of it.

Not to mention the companies with weak financials who won’t survive.

It’ll help to have a roadmap like this:


Winners & Losers

Just like there were winners & losers duringt the DotCom Boom and Bust, we’ll have similar

Next week, we’ll talk about some of Bitcoin-adjacent companies that exist right now and which ones Jeffry sees as likely long-term survivors.

We’ll give you one hint: The race is long and it’s not a sprint… it’s a marathon.

— The Jeffry Turnmire Trading Team

What to read next