Markets are mixed today, although now, towards the close, the S&P and the Nasdaq are both heading lower — it will be important to watch that as we get closer to 4pm ET.
This morning, I asked our experts for their thoughts on this question:
With the markets’ recent run, would you say we are safely “out of the woods” for the short-to-medium term? And what is the next potential sign of trouble that traders should look out for?
Here are their answers:
“I am still 50/50 on whether the correction is over and we’re going to have a bullish year vs this IS the correction and we’re headed lower.
I am watching a 50% retracement on the S&P which is $580.
So playing longs into that range and then planning to be more flat and give it some time to make a decision around that level. Which I think could take its time as we’ve seen this market sputter around key levels for weeks and then rip.”
“I agree with Nate.
if the markets get to 50% retracements, seasonality favors a further melt-up, but if the bears claw back down below the 200 moving averages, the markets may sniff the lows or lower once more.
if we’re going to see all-time highs for 2025, the bulls don’t want to see too much more damage to the recent lows – way too much open space below the lows to fall 15-20% peak to trough.”
“Tagged 38.2% retracement yesterday and now we have failed from it. Until we take out yesterday’s high, 50% is suspect.”
“Definitely not safely out of the woods.
Seasonality look great, lots of “historical” market data looks awesome.
That said, the economic climate is not that incredible. I think Trump softening up on Tariffs can help, but also there is still a really strong theory that Trump & co. would love to force a bigger slowdown to get what they want from the Fed, refinance debt + get a nice rally before midterms.
I loaded up on March 13th for the bottom – so far that day is the bottom; however, if we get capitulation here at 200 day MA + unfavorable news from White House, I do think that new lows are not out of the equation.”
And Jeffry sent us this graph…
Well, after all that, I feel a bit like the guy on Groundhog Day saying the groundhog saw his shadow.
Opinions are really mixed on where we go from here, but at least now you know the key levels to look for.
Make sure you’re tuning into these guys’ regular live sessions, too, because that’s where you’ll get the most up-to-date information.
We’ve had a healthy recovery from the recent correction, but we’re not out of the woods yet. So protect your accounts accordingly.
To your prosperity,
Stephen Ground
Editor-in-Chief, ProsperityPub
P.S. Geof Smith’s been watching one key recession indicator — and it’s just started flashing! But instead of panicking, he’s getting ready to trade it, because a recession could send this ticker into overdrive!
