Let me just say this upfront: I’m not a Tesla superfan. I don’t own one. I don’t follow Elon’s tweets. I’m not emotionally invested in what the company stands for.
But I do like risk vs. reward.
And right now, Tesla might be the best setup in the entire market from that lens.
Here’s why…
The Mag 7 Are the Key
Yesterday I wrote about how the “Mag 7” — Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG) — are still the biggest force in the market.
If they hold up, we could be setting up for a Q2 rally…
But if they break down? It’s going to be tough to stop the bleeding.
And Tesla? It’s been hit the hardest. It’s down over 52% from the recent highs… which makes it one of the most interesting names on the list.
A Setup That Doesn’t Need Much
I’m not saying Tesla’s going back to $400.
But if it stabilizes? If it just doesn’t fall apart?
I think there’s a technical case for a move to $340 — and if that happens, it sets up a massive opportunity on long-dated options.
Right now, I’m looking at small capital bets that could turn into 10x or even 20x if Tesla recovers… even partially.
- If I’m wrong? I lose a couple hundred bucks.
- If I’m right? I could turn $200 into $2,000+.
That’s not a hope-and-pray trade — that’s just math.
This Is Why I’m Turning Bullish on Q2
Last week, I mentioned how fast corrections like this the one we’ve just lived through often act as flushes, followed by quick rebounds.
We saw it in August 2024.
We saw it in early 2020.
Even retail sentiment is starting to roll over — which, historically, means the flip is coming.
Now we need to see the Mag 7 (including TSLA) confirm that by holding support or bouncing. If they do, I think we could see a sneaky-strong Q2.
Add in the fact that I just tested a weekend-only SPY trade that’s hitting a 90% win rate, and I think there’s real opportunity brewing in this market — even with all the noise.
If you missed it, I broke all of this down in my latest Mapping the Market session
Watch the whole episode here.
— Nate Tucci
P.S. That weekend trade setup with the >90% win rate? If you haven’t seen this yet, check it our now!
