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We’ll discuss understanding risk-reward, the “illusion” of high-risk trading and more [tap to join us for Opening Playbook]
Here’s something I’ve learned after years of watching markets: The most impressive percentage moves aren’t always the healthiest ones.
Case in point — this past Friday’s session.
The S&P 500 (SPY) closed up around 1%. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) trailed, up 0.9% for the day.
Nothing spectacular on the surface. But when I dug into the internals, it became clear this was probably the most attractive day we’ve had in a while.
Why? Because of what was happening under the hood.
Compared to last Friday — when we saw a massive 2% pop that was much more centralized in tech — this time we saw wider participation.
The headline number looked better on that earlier move, but the rally was narrow and concentrated and those tend to fade. This one had healthier breadth and a more balanced tone.
And here’s where things got interesting: The Magnificent Seven (MAG7) actually outperformed everything with a 1.5% gain.
We haven’t seen that kind of leadership from them in a while, even on days when tech and the Nasdaq were winning.
What Made Friday Different
The sector action was cleaner. Communication Services (XLC) — driven by Google parent Alphabet (GOOG; GOOGL) and Meta (META) — and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) performed well.
Financials (XLF) were up around 1%. Not explosive but steady and constructive.
Then there was the breadth. The market finally showed signs of participation instead of leaning on a few megacaps.
When I pulled up the heat map, about 63% of the top 100 stocks were green, and the average green was just a little bit healthier than the average red.
That’s the kind of balance you want to see when a market is trying to build momentum rather than just rip.
One oddball showed up though: Small caps finished red.
That was surprising given the broader strength, and it kept the day from being a clean sweep across the board.
The Test Ahead
For the most part, our healthiest days have been faded in the immediate next session or two.
So the real question heading into today is whether we can follow through with momentum, or if we’ll get the same old rotation where one sector pops while another drags us right back into the range on the S&P 500.
If we can stack a few sessions with this kind of participation — broader strength, cleaner rotation and leadership from names that have been lagging — then we might finally have something worth leaning into.
If not, then this past Friday was just another head fake in a market that still hasn’t decided what it wants to be.
Either way, I’m paying attention to the structure — not just the headlines.
Now don’t forget to join us at 10 a.m. ET weekdays for Opening Playbook, and at 3:30 p.m. ET Closing Playbook!
Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. From 10/02/24 to 01/29/26, the average win rate was 80.2% on live published trades. The average return on options trades was 1.95 % over a one-day hold time, with an average winner of 23.88%



