The market keeps grinding higher.
Week after week, new highs stack up. In several major indices, we’re now seeing a winning streak that only shows up a handful of times in history.
For context, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has been bullish in nine of the past ten weeks, the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) has mirrored that strength and the S&P 500 (SPX) has logged nine straight bullish weeks.
Moves like that are rare, and that is part of why this rally has felt so uncomfortable for many traders.
Top might be in. It’s been too many weeks in a row… Time to get cautious.
I hear it all the time. And honestly, that is exactly why I’m still leaning in.
Here is the thing most traders miss about market tops. They do not arrive when people are nervous. They arrive when people stop being nervous.
Right now, we are still in that cautious camp. As I put it on our team call: “I still see too many people playing defense… waiting for the pullback… thinking this thing is stretched.” And that kind of skepticism is fuel.
I do not think a real correction can come until we get deeper into this max pain territory. And we are not there yet.
The Flip That Signals the Top
Before we even get into where the pain goes next, it is worth noting how unusual the market structure has been.
Sectors that rarely move together are suddenly moving in sync. It is a strange, almost distorted market, and that is exactly the kind of environment that keeps traders off balance.
So what does max pain actually look like?
It is when the conversation flips and people start saying, “Okay, I guess it just goes up. I guess we’re all just going up.”
That is when the crowd gives in. That is when the last group of skeptics stops fighting the trend.
And that is often when conditions finally shift. But we are not there yet. Not even close.
Too many people are still waiting for a pullback. Too many still think the market is stretched. As long as that is the dominant view, the path of least resistance can still remain higher.
How I’m Trading It
This does not mean chasing blindly.
It means staying engaged while managing risk.
Pullbacks in the 2% to 3% range are not something I view as a correction. Those are normal fluctuations. They can create opportunity rather than signal danger.
A larger move, something closer to 5% or more, would change the conversation. But we are not there.
With gains already built into the move, I am comfortable taking tactical setups while staying aware of when momentum shifts. That balance matters.
Short-term volatility can still shake traders out, especially in faster instruments like short-dated options. But that intraday fear often creates the very pullbacks that larger buyers step into.
That is why I stay focused on structure rather than noise.
The Bottom Line
Markets do not usually top when people are worried.
They top when everyone stops expecting risk.
We are not in that phase yet.
Until sentiment fully flips and the last group of skeptics capitulates, I am not treating this as a mature top.
For now, the trend remains intact, and the discomfort in the move is often a sign that positioning has not fully caught up yet.
So I stay patient. I stay structured. And I keep watching sentiment more than headlines.
Because in environments like this, the real signal is not price alone.
It is how people feel about it.
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Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades
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