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There’s a pattern in the market that’s almost as reliable as gravity, and it’s playing out with SpaceX (SPCX) right now.
I want to walk you through something I’ve been tracking closely — a statistical reality that trips up retail traders every single time they chase a hot IPO. I’ve discussed this before, but about 95% of IPOs drop 50% from their initial price and make a significantly lower low.
Not sometimes. Not occasionally… 95% of the time.
This isn’t doom and gloom — it’s just how the game works by looking at history. And if you understand the pattern, you can position yourself to profit when everyone else is panicking.
SpaceX came public at $135, and I’ve done the math on where this thing is likely headed. My real target is $67.50 — that’s exactly 50% off the IPO price. SpaceX has already made a lower low, and if you look at the high and the low, we’re almost 50% off the highs made right after the IPO.
That kind of drop usually takes much longer to materialize, which tells you just how quickly this pattern is unfolding.
The Timeline Is Tighter Than You Think
This pattern usually plays out in the first 18 months after the IPO. But when a stock gets this close to a 50% drawdown this early, it signals a level of momentum that compresses the usual timeline. We may get to that full 50% mark much faster than the typical cycle.
That’s why vigilance matters. The speed of these moves is exactly what catches most traders leaning the wrong way.
How I’ll Trade This Setup
Timing this setup matters. I’m not buying shares and hoping. I’m positioning to collect premium in an area where the statistical edge is on my side.
I’ll probably start selling puts when we get down to $100 a share, so not that far away now. Selling premium at that level lets me participate without chasing falling price, and puts me close to the zone where IPOs typically stabilize after the 50% reset.
But the biggest edge here isn’t the strategy — it’s the patience to wait for the pattern to complete. Let the weak hands shake out. Let emotion run its course. Then step in when the odds favor you, not when the hype machine is loudest.
This isn’t about being bearish on SpaceX as a company. It’s about understanding market structure and human behavior. And right now, both are pointing to a target at $67.50, where I’ll be watching very carefully.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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Important Note: No one from the ProsperityPub team or Jeffry Turnmire Trading will ever message you directly on Telegram.
I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. 1% a day? This Kind of Consistency Should NOT Be PossibleÂ
Take it from me, the daily tactic I’m about to show you is arguably the most consistent setup I’ve come across…
Over 172 trades and counting without a single loss, all because I’ve struck upon one of the market’s most consistent daily patterns.
