The possibility of China reopening — that’s what the bulls are holding on to.
But even if China decides that they want to abolish the ridiculous Zero Covid policy…
They can’t just flip a switch and put all that capital — human or otherwise — back to work immediately.
It’s going to take a significant amount of time.
It’s been off line for 2 or 3 years in many cases. And they’ll have a big problem trying to reopen without creating tons of logistical problems.
Meanwhile, in the US, recession is becoming more of a consensus view. (If you’ve been following me, you know I was there months ago.)
At this point it’s just a matter of how deep and how long.
► With that said, I’m recommending you short W (Wayfair).
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