Hey, Graham here…
And I wanted to share a few stats that really caught my attention — and they might change the way you’re looking at this market…
Which is selling off hard again heading into the weekend…
According to the latest AAII sentiment survey, bearish sentiment just hit 59.2%. That makes three straight weeks with bears above 55%, something that’s only happened one other time in history: March 2009.
And if you remember what came next — only the longest bull market run in history! — you know why that matters.
On top of that, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee pointed out that we’ve just gone through the fifth-fastest correction in market history. In every single case before this, the S&P 500 was higher three, six and and 12 months later.
Unless we hit a full-blown recession, the odds say a bottom may already be in.
Yes, the market’s been shaky this week. But if you’re looking for signs of a turnaround, history is flashing some pretty bullish signals.
Stay tuned — I’ll share what I see in this daily newsletter, on my “Opening Playbook” livestreams at 10 a.m. ET on Tuesdays and Thursdays, and during my special events!
Stocks Slip as Trade War Tensions and Sticky Inflation Weigh on Wall Street
Nonetheless, stocks are lower by quite a bit Friday as investors are processing another round of new, unsettling headlines — this time a mix of hotter-than-expected inflation and rising trade tensions.
The move lower followed the release of the latest PCE report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which showed core inflation climbing 0.4% in February and 2.8% year-over-year, above expectations.
That’s not the cooling trend Wall Street was hoping for — and likely means rates stay higher for longer.
Add in the drama from President Donald Trump’s trade wars — including newly announced 25% tariffs on all imported cars and more hawkish talk around broader reciprocal duties set for April 2 — and it’s easy to see why the market is uneasy.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has tried to calm nerves by calling the inflation spike “transitory,” but more Fed officials are sounding unsure.
Not to mention, he said inflation was transitory a few years ago, and look where we’ve been since. So his track record on this is not good.
Another Fed official said the outlook feels like “zero visibility” in a “dense fog.”
Meanwhile, consumer spending didn’t bounce back as much as hoped — another sign that higher prices and economic uncertainty might be starting to weigh on Main Street, not just Wall Street.
Apex Indicator: AAPL
Two weeks ago, we were watching Apple (AAPL) for a possible move up.
But then everything fell. In this market, that’s no surprise.
Now it might be coming back…
First, here’s our model portfolio for these free signals I share each week:
That 100% win rate won’t last forever, of course, but it’s great to see early success! There are no guarantees in trading, so trade at your own risk. But we’ll keep these signals coming because I want to show off the power of my Apex Indicator.
Last week, Eli Lilly (LLY) stood out. But then it fell back. Again, no surprise because just about everything is falling.
But AAPL is starting to make a move again, today’s dip aside. Here’s the chart:
It bounced off of our stop level and looks like it might fire off a Buy signal in the next week.
Our target would be up at $256.83, and our stop would be down at $210.36.
We enter these trades using wrap orders, and for more training on how to place wraps… go here!
That’s all for today. I hope everyone has a great weekend — we’ll be back at it on Monday, and then at 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday for “Opening Playbook”!
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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