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I got an alert recently that made me smile…
Adobe (ADBE) hit the target I’ve had on my chart since early 2024. Just clean price action doing exactly what the technicals suggested it would do.
This wasn’t rocket science. It’s what happens when you identify the pattern, set your levels and let the market come to you. People say I get lucky on these setups, but here’s the thing — I seem to get lucky a lot.
Once price tapped the zone I’d been watching, the structure became even clearer. We may push a little lower from here — could come down to $200 — and while I don’t expect ADBE to drop all the way to $140, it’s still entirely possible based on the proportions in this move.
Understanding those dynamics helps frame the next stage instead of reacting emotionally.
The ABC Correction Pattern That Told the Story
The real foundation of this move was the structure. ADBE formed an absolutely beautiful ABC correction, and we’re now hitting the top of the ideal spot that pattern projected.
When you understand how corrections typically unfold, these targets stop feeling like guesses and start looking like the natural conclusion of the pattern.
The proportions are what made this compelling. Mapping out where buyers would likely return based on the entire corrective structure gave me the confidence to set those levels early last year and simply wait.
The math lined up, the pattern matured and the price delivered.
Why I’m Not Buying Adobe Right Now
So here’s the question everyone asks: Is it a buying opportunity now?
Here’s my answer: If you bought now, are you willing to sit through a 100-point pullback down to $140? I’m not.
I’m going to wait for a reversal to show up where we move up, retrace and make a higher high — not a lower high — before I get involved in ADBE. That confirmation could come from significantly lower levels.
This is where discipline matters. Just because price arrives at a target zone doesn’t mean it’s time to jump in.
You need structure. You need to see selling pressure exhaust itself. You need the reversal, not just the level.
The takeaway isn’t just about ADBE. It’s about the process. Identify the pattern. Set your levels. Track them patiently.
Then evaluate the setup without emotion when price finally reaches your zone. That’s how consistency starts looking like luck from the outside.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
I host my Morning Monster livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then 30 Minutes of Awesome at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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