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I’ve been watching something develop that I think deserves your attention — especially if you’ve been riding the Nasdaq rally and wondering where the money flows next.
The move we’re seeing now has all the signs of being the final hurrah in this cycle. That doesn’t mean it ends tomorrow, but it does mean the next big rotation could be the last meaningful upside before a much larger and potentially long, unpleasant stretch for the market.
Timing matters more here than anywhere else in the past few years.
If this tech party keeps rolling, I’m strongly of the opinion that we’re going to see a rotation to materials, and then probably space stocks as SpaceX comes public in the next month or two.
This isn’t random. The biggest tech names have reached a size where the law of large numbers starts to choke off future gains. Once companies get that massive, upside slows, and money naturally starts looking for sectors that haven’t been bid into the stratosphere yet.
The party likely continues through the big IPOs, but here’s where the window tightens. The timeline for Anthropic and OpenAI is absolutely critical.
If they can get their crap together and out the door, they probably catch the energy. If they stall past August, I don’t think they catch it. Realistically, if you go much past July, you risk missing the IPO pop altogether.
The window is narrow — much narrower than most people assume.
The Materials Setup Is Already Moving
The shift isn’t hypothetical anymore — the rotation has already started. MP Materials (MP) is beginning to break out, and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is clearly running. This isn’t “maybe someday,” it’s happening right in front of us.
Space stocks look similar. Rocket Lab (RKLB) has been one of my favorites, and it just ripped above my target in two days. That’s the kind of clean follow-through that tells you momentum is building in the overlooked corners of the market.
And part of why this rotation is gaining traction is because of what’s happening with consumers. We have a clear K-shaped economic split. Companies tied to big-ticket purchases, casual dining, subscriptions or impulse buying through credit are walking into a buzz saw.
When people are putting groceries on cards at 24% APR, that’s not a healthy foundation. Weakness in that part of the economy adds pressure to the broad indexes and makes risk-off moments sharper, which only accelerates the move into sectors with better structural support.
A Word of Caution as We Watch This Unfold
Now, as excited as I am about the setups in materials and space, I’m equally uneasy when I zoom out. We’re seeing internal divergences in the S&P 500 that have only appeared during major historical tops — 1929, the dot-com bubble and 2008.
When you compare the value of the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 against the money supply, it paints a picture that’s hard to ignore. Markets can stay euphoric longer than they should, but when the music stops during conditions like these, the reversal can be brutal.
That’s why I’ve started taking action personally. I’m liquidating positions I’ve held for a long time and locking in gains where it makes sense. I’d rather have the cash ready than assume this final leg lasts forever.
It’s not about fear. It’s about discipline. There’s plenty of opportunity in this rotation — you just need to be selective about what you hold and for how long.
To make the most of what’s unfolding, here’s what I’m watching:
Potential rotation winners:
- MP Materials (MP)
- Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
- Rocket Lab (RKLB)
High-catalyst IPOs on deck:
- SpaceX
- Anthropic
- OpenAI
Sectors requiring extra caution:
- Megacap tech stretched by the law of large numbers
- Consumer-facing businesses exposed to credit stress and big-ticket spending
The setups are real, the window is tight and the stakes are higher than they’ve been in years. Be smart, be early and be aware of the broader storm clouds forming behind the scenes.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
