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Everyone’s talking about gold and silver right now. And I get it — they’ve been on a tear. But sometimes the best opportunities aren’t in what’s already run up…
They’re in what’s been left behind.
That’s exactly what I’m seeing with palladium right now. While the other precious metals have been making new highs, palladium has been sitting quietly around $1,700 an ounce.
And that’s precisely what makes it interesting.
When I look at the potential for palladium to catch up to some of the others in the precious metals space, I see something that could be pretty significant. This isn’t about chasing what’s already hot — it’s about positioning ahead of what might be next.
And that requires patience.
One great setup often outweighs a hundred mediocre trades, and waiting for the right moment is where real returns are made. Palladium is shaping up to be one of those rare setups where a single well-timed move could carry the entire year.
Another factor being overlooked is how geopolitical dynamics shift value across markets. It’s rarely about the raw material itself — it’s about what happens after it’s out of the ground, how supply chains adjust, and how global tensions redirect demand.
When certain metals surge because they’re caught in the headlines, others get neglected. Palladium sits squarely in that neglected category right now, which creates opportunity.
The Math Behind the Move
Let me walk you through what I’m looking at. If palladium were to make the kind of catch-up move that’s possible here, we could be looking at $4,100 an ounce.
From current levels around $1,700, that represents some pretty big upside potential.
To put this in context, gold recently made its initial push off the highs and is now working through a retrace. If it respects the key levels it’s approaching, it could gear up for another major move.
Silver has already been benefiting from that broader momentum. Palladium, on the other hand, hasn’t even begun that cycle yet — and that lag is exactly why its risk-reward profile stands out.
When you combine a delayed response with a supportive macro backdrop, the setup becomes even more compelling.
This isn’t about guessing or hoping. It’s about recognizing when a market has been left behind long enough that the pressure for a catch-up move starts to build. And not rushing in early is just as important — waiting for your setup always pays better than forcing a trade. Palladium now looks like it’s entering that window where patience meets opportunity.
How to Play It
For those looking to play this thesis, the Palladium ETF (PALL) offers an accessible way to get exposure to the metal. It’s straightforward and doesn’t require you to figure out how to store physical metal or mess with commodity accounts.
After the first mention, PALL is all you need.
Look, I can’t tell you that palladium will definitely make this move. What I can tell you is that the setup is there. When you’ve got one metal in a complex that’s been completely ignored while everything else rallies, it creates an asymmetric opportunity.
Either it catches up — which could be a substantial move — or it doesn’t, and you’ve got a clearly defined risk.
That’s the kind of risk-reward that makes sense to me. Not the stuff that’s already parabolic like silver, but the stuff that might just be getting started.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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