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While the broader market’s been throwing fits lately, there’s one name setting up in a way that’s got my full attention — and it’s not your typical tech darling right now.
I’m talking about Tesla (TSLA).
Look, I know sentiment’s been all over the place with this stock. But when I strip away the noise and just look at what the chart’s telling me, I’m seeing a pattern that has beautiful upside potential — the kind of setup that doesn’t come around every day.
The structure forming here isn’t random. We’re talking about a well-defined base paired with a tightening price range that often precedes a decisive move. When a stock compresses like this after a significant decline, it can create the conditions for an explosive reversal.
The key thing here? Everything hinges on holding the recent low we just put in. If that level holds, we could be looking at a substantial move higher. But if it doesn’t?
Well, I’ll get to that in a second.
The Setup With Big Upside Potential
What makes this pattern so compelling is the technical structure that’s developed. If we can hold on to this low, this has beautiful upside potential for a big fat move — and I’m not talking about a modest 5% pop here.
The way the chart is coiling, the upside projection reaches into a zone that would represent a meaningful trend shift, not just a bounce.
Now, here’s where timing gets interesting. I don’t know if we can get going before earnings, and that’s an important caveat. Earnings can be a powerful catalyst in either direction, and Tesla is no stranger to dramatic moves when numbers hit the tape.
If the stock hasn’t already started to lift before the report, traders should be prepared for volatility because earnings could either ignite the pattern or delay it.
But the pattern itself? That’s what I’m focused on. The potential is real. It’s just a matter of whether the market gives it the green light by respecting that recent low.
The Key Level That Defines the Path Forward
Every good setup needs clear parameters — you’ve got to know when you’re wrong. And this one’s pretty straightforward.
If the low doesn’t hold, the next major support level sits around $400 — a key area defined by the longer-term Market Roadmap line. That’s not just a random number.
It’s where larger time-frame buyers have historically stepped in, and if price drifts down into that zone, it would likely serve as the next battleground between bulls and bears. Anyone watching Tesla closely should have that $400 region marked on their charts.
So we end up with two clean scenarios. Either the stock defends this low and we unlock the upside move I’m talking about, or it fails and gravitates toward that $400 support zone.
What I’m not doing is trying to predict which way it goes with certainty. That’s not how this works. I’m identifying the pattern, recognizing the potential and understanding the key levels that will determine which path we take.
The market will show its hand soon enough.
I’ll be watching Tesla closely over the next several sessions to see if it can defend this low and start building momentum. If it does, this could be one of those setups that pays off in a big way.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
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We develop strategies to the best of our ability, but we cannot guarantee a future return. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The results shown are from a 237-trade backtest from 1/1/20 – 1/1/26. The result was a 70% win rate, 40% average return (winners and losers), with a 7-day hold time.
