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I’ve been watching Bitcoin closely, and I’ve got to say: This recent bounce looks like it’s sucking people in.
I know that’s not what folks want to hear when they’re watching their crypto positions climb, but sometimes the market sets a trap before it makes its real move.
Here’s what I’m seeing…
I think we’re going to see a final flush before Bitcoin establishes a legitimate bottom. My ideal target is around $40K, within a broader zone between $30K and $50K. That’s a significant drop from current levels around $80K on Friday, but there’s a method to this analysis.
The Technical Levels and Psychology I’m Monitoring
I’m tracking two key support levels on the way down. The Market Roadmap line (pictured below) is the first test, followed by the 61.8% retracement level.
These aren’t random lines on a chart — they’re the markers that’ll tell us whether Bitcoin holds here or continues its descent.
If we get below both levels, we’ll make the lower low. Could the move truncate and stop a little shy of $50K? Sure. But my base case is that we see another drop before this correction is finished.
This is also where investor psychology matters. A bounce near support can trigger fear of missing out, pulling traders back in before the market confirms a reversal.
On the other hand, a sharp break can provoke panic selling near the worst possible moment. That’s why I’m focused on confirmation rather than emotion.
If Bitcoin holds the road map line or the 61.8% retracement level and reverses higher, the bearish case is off the table and major resistance around $94K becomes the target. I’m not bearish for the sake of being bearish — I’m watching specific levels that’ll tell me when I’m wrong.
The charts lead the way for me.
Why the Broader Path Remains Unclear
Markets can change direction as quickly as technology changes expectations. Tesla (TSLA), for example, can unveil a two-seat autonomous vehicle with butterfly doors, no steering wheel and no pedals — instantly forcing investors to reconsider what the future might look like.
Bitcoin creates similar moments: One decisive move can rewrite the market’s assumptions.
The uncertainty extends beyond crypto. Autonomous vehicles could reshape competition among Uber (UBER), TSLA, Alphabet (GOOGL) and Nvidia (NVDA), creating ripple effects across transportation, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and the broader economy.
Changes in risk appetite across those industries can influence speculative assets like Bitcoin, so the macro backdrop matters alongside the chart.
Ethereum also appears likely to return to its road map line and 61.8% retracement level, roughly paralleling Bitcoin. If both assets test comparable support zones, that would suggest a broader crypto correction rather than isolated Bitcoin weakness.
If Ethereum holds while Bitcoin reverses, it could strengthen the case that buyers are returning across the market.
Nothing is crystal clear. We could rally first, bounce from support or break straight through it. The timeline isn’t defined, but the decision points are. If support holds and price confirms a reversal, I’ll change my view. If those levels break, we’re likely heading toward the $30K–$50K zone.
Stay patient, watch the levels and don’t let a temporary bounce convince you the correction is over.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. See My No. 1 Daily Trade for September LIVE TODAY
Don’t miss the special Labor Day Briefing where I’ll practically hand you my No. 1 day trade for September.
It’s the exact same trade I’ve used to go after the market daily for the past 11 months without a single loss.
