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Gold has been on a tear lately — no denying that. But if you zoom out, the chart is flashing a pretty loud warning: This move is looking too vertical.
We’re not talking about a normal grind higher. This is one of those momentum runs that sucks people in right before it snaps back. And based on how far we’ve stretched from the daily Roadmap line, a retracement could be just around the corner.
Chart Gravity Is Real
It doesn’t matter what the narrative is — inflation, rate cuts, geopolitical fear, whatever. Charts still obey the rules of gravity. And right now, gold has gotten way too far away from its key moving average.
We haven’t touched the daily Roadmap line since the move kicked off over a year ago. Same goes for the three-day and weekly charts. That kind of distance can’t last forever. Sooner or later, we come back to test those levels. That’s just how these things work.
Look at where the last real breakout happened. We blew through resistance, retested, then ran hard. But we haven’t come back since. That’s not sustainable.
Deep Retrace Zones to Watch
The last time gold did something like this, it didn’t just pull back a little — it dumped hard. On the weekly chart, the breakout zone is all the way down around $1,900. That’s a long way from where we are now, but it’s a realistic retrace target.
Even on a three-day time frame, we’ve seen this pattern play out before: blow off top, deep retrace, and then a more sustainable move higher. If we start seeing weakness creep in, that’s the zone I’ll be watching.
Don’t get me wrong — I’m not calling the top on gold here. Long term, the macro case still looks solid. But this chart setup says we could get a reset before the next leg higher. And if you’re chasing up here, that pullback could hurt.
Bottom line: Be careful leaning too hard into the hype right now. Let the chart do what it needs to do. If we get that pullback, that’s when I’ll be looking to reload.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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