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Everyone was freaking out about oil Monday morning, but let’s take a breath and think this through. We saw oil spike to $119.48 overnight, and yeah, that got my attention too. The chaos in the Middle East lit the match, and the market did what it always does when tensions flare — it panicked.
I’ve been saying for a long time that we’d eventually come back up and retest that 61.8% Fibonacci level, and here we are. The move hit exactly where I expected, and the way it reacted tells me this could come back into the gap around $92. Don’t be surprised if that overnight spike was actually the peak.
We made a high in 2022, sold off hard in 2023, and now we’ve ramped up to that same 61.8% level. We poked through a bit but we didn’t make a higher high. And the daily candle? That’s the kind of candle that says buyers are losing control — fast.
The Reversal Setup Nobody’s Talking About
Here’s what you need to watch out for: This entire run could be an A-wave or even a W-wave. It’s been one straight rip with no real pullbacks, and that kind of vertical move rarely ends gracefully.
We could unwind a lot of this move, which would shock most people but the chart absolutely leaves that door open.
We tagged the 61.8% reversal zone and if price can’t stick that level, the air pocket below becomes a real problem. We’re also far above the Daily Roadmap line, which is still down in the $60s — a full 30 points lower. When oil gets that stretched, a heavy retrace becomes part of the conversation whether people like it or not.
And here’s the bigger issue: Oil is the No. 1 component of inflation. If it hangs out this high, inflation stays hot and that pushes rates higher. This is the part everyone forgets — oil isn’t just a commodity, it’s an economic pressure valve.
If that valve stays jammed open, policy shifts with it.
On top of that, we’re heading into March and you always have to stay alert around this time. March has a history of delivering chaos across markets and when you mix seasonal volatility with geopolitical stress, things can escalate fast.
Meanwhile, the Tech sector (XLK) is dealing with its own version of market upheaval. The same AI that’s supposed to be the next productivity revolution is acting like a wrecking ball on certain tech loans and cash-flow-dependent sectors.
That kind of disruption bleeds into broader liquidity conditions — and conditions like that tend to amplify moves in commodities, not dampen them.
The Gold‑Oil Ratio Is Screaming Something Important
But the real story is in the gold‑oil ratio. When you price oil in ounces of gold and take dollars out of the equation, the picture changes fast. The ratio had been crushed to levels we hadn’t seen since COVID, and now it’s ripping back in the other direction.
Historically, the gold‑oil ratio sits around 0.06 ounces of gold per barrel of oil. We’re on our way back toward that long-term equilibrium. Flip it around and you get the clearer version — roughly 20 barrels of oil for one ounce of gold.
That historical relationship has held for decades even through massive market shocks.
This is why I keep saying balance must return to the oil‑gold relationship. People see $100 oil and think it’s sky-high but in relative terms, oil is still extremely cheap when measured against gold.
That’s the part almost no one is paying attention to and it’s driving a major silent rebalancing underneath the surface.
So while everyone else is chasing the war premium, I’m watching the technical levels, the market structure and the intermarket ratios that actually matter. That’s where the real opportunity is shaping up.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
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