Gold and silver have had a strong run, but the question now is whether that momentum holds or if a bigger retrace is coming. Both metals have hit key technical levels, and while the recent move higher looked strong, there are clear warning signs that traders need to watch.
Gold recently pushed higher in what looked like a classic five-wave move. If that count is correct, we could be looking at a retrace before another leg up. The key area to watch is the 618 Fibonacci retrace level, which often acts as a support zone before another rally.
If gold holds above that level, we could see another breakout attempt. But if it breaks down, that’s where things get tricky.
Silver is already showing signs of weakness. It made a lower high, which isn’t exactly bullish. If this turns into a full retrace, we could see it drop right back to where it was just a couple of weeks ago.
That doesn’t mean the long-term bull case is dead, but it does mean caution is warranted in the short term.
The Technical Setup Says Be Careful
Gold’s last move higher had all the hallmarks of a completed wave structure. That means the next phase is either a pause before another breakout, or a deeper pullback that resets the setup entirely.
If we get a measured retrace into support, that could be a strong buying opportunity. But if gold breaks below key levels, the move could be much more severe.
Silver looks even more vulnerable. Unlike gold, which managed a strong push, silver struggled to break out and instead reversed lower. That kind of action suggests we could see a deeper pullback before any meaningful rally.
If silver drops into the lower range of its last move, that could shake out weak hands before setting up a more sustainable move higher.
The bottom line is old and silver are at a crossroads. If support holds, there’s still a path higher. But if these retraces deepen, we could see a more significant reset before the next big move. Traders should stay cautious, watch key levels and be ready to react.
This isn’t the time to chase. Let the market come to you.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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