Let’s get something straight — this sell-off isn’t about tariffs.
The financial media would love you to believe that. It’s a simple story, and it sounds familiar. Tariffs are easy to talk about. But they’re not why the market is breaking down. The real reason is much bigger — and far more dangerous.
We’ve been here before. Remember the last time Trump rolled out tariffs on China? The media predicted disaster. What actually happened? Markets pulled back briefly, then rallied hard. Tariffs didn’t break the bull — they barely made a dent. If anything, they set up a buying opportunity.
So why are we hearing the same tired script again?
Because the media isn’t talking to real traders. They’re pushing headlines that fit their narrative. But the people actually in the market — the ones taking risk, managing trades, watching every tick — aren’t reacting to tariffs. I asked my own community: Who’s trading based on tariff talk? Almost nobody raised their hand.
That’s because the real pressure on this market isn’t political — it’s structural. Global liquidity is rolling over. That’s the actual driver here.
When global liquidity drops, everything risk-related comes under stress. Stocks. Crypto. Commodities. Doesn’t matter. Liquidity is the fuel, and when it gets pulled, everything sputters.
You can already see it in the internals. Declining breadth. Broken supports. Measured moves to the downside. This isn’t a news-driven dip — it’s a liquidity-driven unwind.
Now Comes the Real Test
We’re sitting at a critical point in the charts. The S&P 500 has hit support near the 5,300 level on Friday. If we hold, great — we could bounce. But it’s how we bounce that will tell us everything.
If this rally off the lows develops into a five-wave move, that’s constructive. It would suggest that the pullback is over and the bulls are back in charge.
But if we only get a weak, choppy, three-wave move — that’s your warning.
That’s a setup for a much deeper flush, possibly a wave 3-style crash. And wave 3s don’t mess around. They’re fast, brutal and unforgiving. If you think this last drop was scary, wait until you see what happens if the three-wave bounce fails.
So here’s what I’m watching…
Structure, not headlines. If we stall out under major resistance, that’s bad. If we break higher, pull back cleanly and then surge — that’s good. Don’t overcomplicate it. It’s not about tariffs, politics or media spin.
It’s about price. It’s about patterns. It’s about liquidity.
Stay focused. Stay cautious. And stay frosty.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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