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I’ve seen this movie before. The patterns showing up across the S&P 500, oil, the Nasdaq, the Russell 2000, Bitcoin — even gold — are giving me some serious 2007 vibes.
And if you’ve been watching the charts with me, you probably see it too.
Back then, we had a sharp move down, a strong bounce that made a new high, and then the real downside kicked in. That second leg down? It wasn’t just a dip — it was a 57% correction.
Now zoom out on the current setup. We’ve had that same aggressive move down, the same bounce, and we’re flirting with the same kind of resistance.
On the three-day chart, it looks almost identical to the pattern right before things unraveled in 2008. Price patterns repeat — it’s what they do — and this one has my full attention.
Big Moves, Bigger Implications
Oil is tracing out the same kind of roadmap. If it breaks out like it did in 2008, we could see a spike back toward $150, which last happened right before everything came crashing down.
Gold is running hot too — but still has room for a pullback to the Roadmap line. And Bitcoin? Pushing on the downtrend line but stuck under resistance. If it confirms higher, the whole risk landscape might shift — but we’ve got to actually see the move.
The S&P 500 (SPX) is testing that weekly 618 level Fibonacci level — the same zone that separated a rally from a full-blown reversal last time. As long as we’re below 5,490, a lower low is still in the cards. If we break above, there’s room to test the resistance zone between 5,600 and 5,800, but even that could just be a setup for a reversal like we saw pre-crisis.
What Happens If We Fail Here?
If we reject off this level, I’m watching for a measured bounce that rolls over hard — that could take us as low as 3,200 on the S&P, which would line up with a full-blown 2008-style correction. I’m not saying it’s guaranteed — I don’t have a crystal ball — but it’s in the chart.
And it’s showing up everywhere.
You can ignore the macro noise — elections, tariffs, headlines — but when multiple charts across multiple sectors tell the same story, that’s not noise. That’s a signal.
Be careful out there. This pattern has history — and history doesn’t always repeat, but it often rhymes.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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