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There’s something oddly satisfying about watching a high-flyer get hammered — until you realize the pain might be setting up one of those classic contrarian opportunities.
Chipotle (CMG) saw brutal price action from the July highs into those November lows, with relentless selling day after day.
CMG has been chewing lower since its stock split, grinding down investor enthusiasm one ugly session at a time.
When you see a pattern like that it tells you something important about market psychology. At some point, you’ve bummed everybody out sufficiently.
And that’s when bottoms form — not when the news turns positive but when the selling finally exhausts itself.
The Six-Month Lag Nobody Talks About
There’s another dynamic at play that most traders overlook. Here’s something that doesn’t get discussed enough: Fundamental sentiment tends to lag the actual chart by about six months.
That means a stock can rally for months before the headlines or analyst narratives begin to improve.
This is why charts matter more than commentary. The market moves first and the story comes after. While everyone is still feeling bearish, the price can already be quietly shifting higher. CMG’s long grind lower has created the exact environment where this kind of divergence between sentiment and price can emerge.
And now the stock is up 14% over the past month.
What the Pattern Is Actually Telling Us
Looking at that November low, the exhaustive selling is classic capitulation behavior. It’s not about catching the exact bottom — it’s about recognizing when the risk-reward setup starts shifting in your favor.
Those vicious gaps, the relentless pressure, the absence of meaningful bounces — all signs of complete seller control. But control like that never lasts forever.
Take a look at CMG since the November lows…
Eventually the market runs out of willing sellers and that’s when things get interesting. The turn usually begins quietly, long before the broader crowd realizes anything has changed.
I’m not saying CMG is about to rocket higher overnight. But after months of selling pressure and sentiment decay, the conditions for a meaningful shift are starting to line up.
These are the moments when opportunities form — after sufficient pain when the chart finally looks bummed out enough that nobody wants it anymore.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. The profits and performance shown are not typical. From 11/18/25 – 12/12/25 on 32 live trades taken with real money, the win rate is 96.8%, 27.49% average return, with an average hold time of 24 hours.
