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Here’s what most people don’t want to hear: Bitcoin hovering around $64,000 is still a long way from a real bottom.
I know that’s not what the hopium crowd wants to hear, especially after the Federal Reserve effectively rug-pulled the entire risk asset universe with its abrupt policy shifts.
When the Fed tightens conditions this aggressively, it doesn’t just hit equities or bonds — it drains liquidity from every corner of the market. Crypto is no exception. That macro pressure is part of why I’m not interested in catching falling knives right now. I’m interested in accumulating where panic has done its job and the tourists have left the building.
Under the surface, there are two completely different realities playing out in the crypto market. On one side, retail capitulation is brutal — the realized profit-to-loss ratio has collapsed below 1.
That means people are selling Bitcoin at break-even or a loss more often than at a profit, a clear sign of short-term stress. This flush tells you everything about sentiment: Most of the short-term holders who bought the top are sitting on heavy red bags and wondering what just happened.
Meanwhile, long-term holders aren’t selling.
At the same time, something fascinating is happening behind the scenes. The foundational infrastructure of the crypto industry is quietly pivoting toward artificial intelligence. It isn’t loud and it isn’t hyped, but it’s happening.
That shift could end up providing resilience in the next cycle as decentralized compute, AI-driven automation and new forms of digital infrastructure start to merge. Markets can stay ugly in the short term, but innovation never stops — and AI may become one of the catalysts that strengthens the next major move in this space.
Why I’m Targeting the $30,000-$50,000 Zone
I’ve been a proponent of the $30,000-$50,000 zone for a long time and nothing in the recent price action changes that. It’s entirely possible we dip slightly below $30,000 on a flush-out panic, but that zone represents the area where true capitulation typically happens — where sentiment, liquidity and on-chain stress collide to form a bottom.
And speaking of on-chain stress, the metrics paint a clear picture. When realized profits fall below realized losses for a sustained period, it signals a behavioral shift. Holders aren’t selling into strength — they’re giving up into weakness. Historically, this phase aligns with the final stages of a downtrend where selling pressure exhausts itself. These are the conditions where smart money starts backing up the truck.
Some traders point to massive buy walls around $60,000 as evidence of a potential floor. I don’t buy it — at least not yet. But it’s worth noting that any dip below that level continues to get absorbed quickly. We’re also holding near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around $62,000, which could produce a short-term bounce before we revisit lower levels.
How I’m Playing This
Here’s my approach: For the last several days I’ve been accumulating — dollar cost averaging, just picking up a few Satoshis — a small amount of Bitcoin — every day. I’m not trying to nail the exact bottom. I’m letting the market do what it needs to do while slowly building a position.
The bigger move, in my view, is still months away. Later this summer or possibly in October, the setup could become undeniable. If you’re patient, you’ll have a great opportunity. If you rush in and go all-in now you risk getting caught in the downdraft before the real capitulation zone forms.
Capitulation is a process, not an event. It happens when macro pressure peaks, when sentiment breaks, when on-chain stress reaches extremes and when innovation quietly builds underneath it all. We’re not there yet — but we’re heading toward it.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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Important Note: No one from the ProsperityPub team or Jeffry Turnmire Trading will ever message you directly on Telegram.
I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. 3 Tickers Are Leading the Charge for the Next Couple of Months
Don’t let the headlines fool you, you don’t need the market moving upward to target cash.
Over the next couple of months, I’ll be targeting three tickers for trade opportunities no matter what the overall market does.
Want to see what they are?
