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Sometimes the setups with the lowest success rates deliver the biggest payouts — and Barrick Mining (B) is setting up one of those rare patterns right now.
I’ve been selling puts in an effort to get assigned shares because I want to ride this potential move higher. What has my attention is what I call the “rocket ship pattern” — a measured bounce at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level that lines up with a potential Market Roadmap bounce.
B is trading around $40 with the potential to reach $70 if this pattern plays out. That’s nearly $30 of upside — almost a double from current levels. If it gets going, it may not stop at $70.
We could see a correction followed by another leg higher.
The Risk-Reward Reality
Now let me say, the success rate on rocket ship patterns is relatively low. I’m not going to sugarcoat that. But when these patterns pay out, they’ve produced some of my biggest gains.
I spotted a similar pattern forming on B in November 2024. With the stock around $15 to $16, I bought $20 calls expiring in January 2026 for about $1 a contract. They went underwater at first but eventually moved deep in the money. I sold them for around $25 each and made about $30,000 — my best individual options trade of 2025.
This setup also stands out against a market increasingly driven by concentrated technology themes. Semiconductor companies may have broad exposure, but investors still have to ask whether margins could erode if hyperscalers scale back.
A monetization concern at one giant customer can rattle the entire semiconductor neighborhood.
AI will probably become so embedded that people use it without thinking about it. Plenty of people say they don’t use AI, but if they open a major search engine, they’re already interacting with it.
That trend can create enormous opportunities in technology, yet it can also leave portfolios crowded into the same names. A gold miner offers a different source of potential upside.
How I’m Playing It
Am I saying to go heavy on this? Absolutely not. A small allocation can become significant with an asymmetric setup like this.
I’m considering $50 calls with expirations one or two years out, giving the trade time to develop. The math may not be as favorable as the earlier trade because those calls probably won’t cost $1, but the structure is similar.
B remains one of my favorite setups because it’s a lower-priced stock with substantial upside potential. The convergence of the Fibonacci bounce and Roadmap level could support an enthusiastic move higher.
Low probability, high reward. Just make sure your position size reflects the risk.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
